Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Fort Worth, TX

544 
WGUS74 KFWD 021453
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
953 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXC337-021503-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160602T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTAGUE TX-
953 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY
REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3373 9759 3343 9760 3344 9798 3374 9798

$$

BAIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
329 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will continue to be the main weather concern for the
next few days. An upper level low centered over southwest Texas
this morning will move east into Central Texas Thursday and
then meander before starting to sink southward Saturday
afternoon. Upper level ridging will build in from the west early
next week bringing dry weather and near seasonal normal
temperatures.

A slowly-moving cold front that extended southeast of a San
Angelo-Abilene-Wichita Falls-Tulsa line can be seen on the 08z /3
a.m. CDT/ surface analysis. Persistent showers and thunderstorms
have produced an estimated 1 to over 4 inches of rain near this
boundary from north of Graham to southwest of Nocona. A CWOP site
located 1 mile southwest of Bowie had recorded 3.25 inches as of 3
am. The cold front is expected to slowly sink southeast farther
into the forecast area today. The high resolution models bring a
round of showers and thunderstorms up from the south today.
Looking at the current trends this makes sense, so have carried
categorical pops 80-90s across the southeast half of the forecast
area for today with likely /60-70s/ elsewhere. With diffluent flow
aloft and precipitable water values of 1.6-1.7 inches, storms
should be very efficient rain producers. thus have kept the Flash
Flood Watch as is for the entire forecast area.

The potential for heavy rain will continue through Friday. As the
upper level low starts to sink south, the areal coverage of rain
should start to decrease from northwest to southeast Friday night
and Saturday. Rain chances will continue through Sunday mainly
south of I-20. There will be some low rain chances across Central
Texas into Monday. As noted above, with upper ridging building in
from the west, dry weather expected for the early to middle part
of next week.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

Convection is slowly increasing in areal coverage across the
region tonight and expect slow moving isolated to scattered
showers and storms to continue through the night. Will carry VCSH
through the night but an isolated thunderstorm or two could impact
any of the TAF sites overnight. In addition, MVFR and IFR cigs
will return and persist through most of the valid TAF period.

An upper level low will slowly move east across the western
portions of the state tonight and Thursday. This will help to
increase the lift across the region and increase rain chances on
Thursday. There will likely be a break in the rain Thursday
morning but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
spread across the region Thursday afternoon and persist through
the end of the valid TAF period. Will carry SHRA VCTS after 17-18Z
tomorrow as this large area of rain persists. There may be brief
breaks but high-res guidance suggests a nearly continuous feed of
rain during this time. One inhibiting factor may be a convective
complex moving across South and Southeast Texas interfering with
the moisture influx into the region.

In association with the upper level trough, a surface low will
move into the region also aiding the lift for convection. The low
will turn the surface winds to the northeast and possibly north
during the day tomorrow. Winds will remain below 10 kts.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  67  78  67  82 /  70  70  60  50  50
Waco                79  66  77  65  80 /  80  70  60  40  60
Paris               77  66  76  67  80 /  70  80  70  50  50
Denton              78  65  76  65  81 /  70  70  60  40  50
McKinney            79  66  76  66  81 /  70  70  70  50  50
Dallas              80  68  79  68  82 /  70  70  60  50  50
Terrell             80  67  77  67  81 /  70  80  70  50  60
Corsicana           79  68  77  67  81 /  80  80  70  50  60
Temple              78  66  76  65  79 /  80  70  60  40  60
Mineral Wells       78  65  76  64  81 /  70  60  60  40  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

30/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO A SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.