River Flood Warning 156, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...Showers with isolated thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR cigs
overnight tonight-Thursday.

This evening, isolated to scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms will continue across parts of North and Central
Texas. Currently, some convection continues around KACT with new
cells developing just southwest of the DFW airports. The chance
for additional scattered convection increases a little more
overnight as warm air above the surface is lifted ahead of an
upper level low over West Texas. The upper level low will move
closer to the region on Thursday with on-and-off rain activity
expected through Friday. For this valid TAF period, will carry a
mention of VCSH this evening and overnight with a return Thursday
afternoon. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds may accompany any of the
showers or isolated storms.

Generally east winds are expected this evening with light
northeast winds likely overnight and Thursday morning. Will
prevail east winds during the day on Thursday but the winds could
have a more southeasterly direction depending on the location of
a surface low in the region. MVFR and IFR cigs will return
overnight starting between 06-08Z and prevailing into Thursday
afternoon.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/
Early-afternoon water vapor loops and upper-air analysis reveal a
vigorous low pressure system located over northern
Sonora/Chihuahua Mexico, tracking gradually towards the east. For
the remainder of this afternoon and evening, the primary areas we
are watching for precipitation continue to be along a
quasistationary boundary which is currently draped across central
Oklahoma and into the extreme eastern Texas Panhandle, and south
of the I-20 corridor where isolated showers and storms have
managed to develop this afternoon. Present indications are that
precipitation coverage should remain generally isolated to
scattered.

Overnight, convection currently developing across the high terrain
of Mexico and additionally across the Texas Panhandle may persist
and make a run at portions of North and Central Texas. However,
this wouldn't be until later tonight and early tomorrow morning.
As we saw yesterday, any showers/storms that develop in this
tropical airmass have the potential to be prolific rainfall
producers, laying down localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2
inches per hour.

Tomorrow, the upper-low and associated trough axis will slide
almost directly overhead. As this occurs, the aforementioned
quasistationary boundary is forecast to sag into our region, as
surface convergence likewise increases. Combined with solid
diffluent flow aloft, another round of widespread showers and
storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening
hours.

An interesting signal has consistently been showing up recent runs
of the GFS (and to a certain extent the ECMWF), showing the
possibility of a warm core low-type event developing Thursday
night and into Friday morning. These types of systems, which
nocturnally intensify as precipitation consolidates around the low
pressure, can be exceptionally prolific rainfall producers.
Because of the potential for heavy rainfall to persist beyond the
initial Flash Flood Watch, we have extended a portion of this
watch until 1 PM Friday east of a line from roughly Paris to
Terrell to Killeen where the threat for heavy rainfall appears
greatest at this time.

While unsettled weather should continue into Saturday as the
upper-low takes its time moving out of the region, the thread for
widespread heavy rainfall should come to an end on Friday
afternoon. At this time, expect basically precip-free conditions
to take hold of North and Central Texas Monday and into the middle
of next week before moisture once again begins to return on
southeasterly flow.

Carlaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  79  67  78  67 /  60  70  70  60  50
Waco                67  79  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  40
Paris               66  77  66  76  67 /  70  70  80  70  50
Denton              65  78  65  76  65 /  60  70  70  60  40
McKinney            66  79  66  76  66 /  60  70  70  70  50
Dallas              68  80  68  79  68 /  60  70  70  60  50
Terrell             67  80  67  77  67 /  60  70  80  70  50
Corsicana           68  79  68  77  67 /  70  80  80  70  50
Temple              67  78  66  76  65 /  70  80  70  60  40
Mineral Wells       65  78  65  76  64 /  70  70  60  60  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ091>094-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

82/77

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