Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
704 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The approach of an upper level low and a weak front have created
bouts with showers and a plethora of cloud layers across North and
Central Texas. It seemed that ceilings were holding out in the
MVFR category for the entire shift, until in the past half hour
when sites in the Metroplex suddenly began reporting IFR. So we
will indicate IFR cigs during the morning hours with improvement
back to MVFR by mid day. Meanwhile, the weak winds along the
front have already begun to back to a more northeasterly
direction, and should become due north this evening with speeds
remaining well below 10 KT. Thunderstorms will become more likely
this afternoon as the upper low encroaches on Central TX during
peak heating hours. Storms should decrease in coverage late this
evening, though isolated activity will continue overnight.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

Convection is slowly increasing in areal coverage across the
region tonight and expect slow moving isolated to scattered
showers and storms to continue through the night. Will carry VCSH
through the night but an isolated thunderstorm or two could impact
any of the TAF sites overnight. In addition, MVFR and IFR cigs
will return and persist through most of the valid TAF period.

An upper level low will slowly move east across the western
portions of the state tonight and Thursday. This will help to
increase the lift across the region and increase rain chances on
Thursday. There will likely be a break in the rain Thursday
morning but widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
spread across the region Thursday afternoon and persist through
the end of the valid TAF period. Will carry SHRA VCTS after 17-18Z
tomorrow as this large area of rain persists. There may be brief
breaks but high-res guidance suggests a nearly continuous feed of
rain during this time. One inhibiting factor may be a convective
complex moving across South and Southeast Texas interfering with
the moisture influx into the region.

In association with the upper level trough, a surface low will
move into the region also aiding the lift for convection. The low
will turn the surface winds to the northeast and possibly north
during the day tomorrow. Winds will remain below 10 kts.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  67  78  68  85 /  70  70  60  50  50
Waco                79  66  78  65  82 /  80  70  60  50  50
Paris               77  66  76  67  80 /  70  80  70  50  50
Denton              78  65  76  65  84 /  70  70  60  40  40
McKinney            78  66  77  66  82 /  70  70  70  50  40
Dallas              80  68  78  68  84 /  70  70  60  50  50
Terrell             79  67  77  67  82 /  70  80  70  50  50
Corsicana           78  68  77  68  81 /  80  80  70  50  60
Temple              77  66  77  65  81 /  80  70  60  50  60
Mineral Wells       78  65  76  65  83 /  70  60  60  40  40

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
431 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO A SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.