Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Kansas City, MO

010 
WWUS53 KEAX 261804
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOC047-165-261815-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-160526T1815Z/
PLATTE MO-CLAY MO-
104 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 103 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
FERRELVIEW...OR NEAR SMITHVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...GLADSTONE...SMITHVILLE...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...
WEATHERBY LAKE...CLAYCOMO...PLEASANT VALLEY...LAKE WAUKOMIS...
FERRELVIEW...PLATTE WOODS...OAKVIEW...NORTHMOOR...HOUSTON LAKE...
OAKWOOD PARK...OAKWOOD...OAKS...WALDRON...
HOOVER AND KANSAS CITY INTL ARPT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 12.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 17.
 INTERSTATE 635 NEAR MILE MARKER 12.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 9442 3918 9451 3920 9477 3921 9478
      3921 9482 3922 9482 3942 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 195DEG 24KT 3935 9467 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PIETRYCHA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast over the next 36-48 hours as a shortwave trough
ejects out of the desert Southwest and pushes surface low pressure
from the lee side of the Rockies out into western KS. The primary
focus for convective initiation later today, at least from a
synoptic perspective, will be the dryline stretching from west
central KS through the TX panhandle, and the warm front extending
northeastward from southwest KS through the central Plains. However,
there are many caveats to this synoptic perspective as overnight
convection sets up several possible outflow boundaries in and around
the CWA, and any additional convection that develops and moves
into the region early this morning could also have an impact on
today's storms. High-resolution models are definitely struggling to
resolve the severe potential, with the HRRR developing a cell on the
edge of the LLJ near sunrise in south central NE, expanding the storm
with time, and using its outflow to effectively push the warm front
into our CWA from its forecast afternoon position in southeast NE
through central IA, which then serves as a focus for what can only be
described as convective explosion by mid-afternoon. While that
scenario seems a bit unlikely, the warm front is currently fairly far
south across central KS, and if it does not lift north with time as
is currently forecast, that could result in another scenario with a
result similar to the HRRR forecast. What is known is that plentiful
CAPE and adequate deep-layer shear will be available this afternoon,
setting the stage for severe potential whenever storms do develop or
arrive in the CWA. Based on the large-scale perspective the highest
chances for strong to severe storms should be late this evening into
the night, but with that much instability and a possibility of some
convergence from lingering outflow boundaries, and an unknown
progression of the synoptic warm front, a few storms are at least
possible from late morning onward.

Friday's severe potential will be highly dependent on how much
convection is ongoing Friday morning, and whether or not any
clearing occurs during the afternoon. Shear is actually its highest
over our CWA on Friday evening as the upper trough shifts eastward,
however instability may be more limited and showers and storms may
be ongoing through much of the day with strong upper-level support
for convection melding into the period when isentropic lift/LLJ
support tends to diurnally wane; thus, it may not be possible to
develop robust updrafts later in the day. Storms are still expected
to develop out to our west along the dryline where instability will
be higher, so if we can clear out long enough to build a bit more
supportive lapse rates, these storms could still be strong to severe
when/if they arrive in the CWA later Friday evening or Friday night.

Storm chances decrease for the weekend, and while PoPs are non-zero
due to available moisture, continued southerly flow, and at least
some instability, the overall forcing will decrease late Friday
night and especially Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough departs
and the dryline retreats back to the west, becoming more diffuse and
likely not sparking daily strong/severe convection is it has been
over the last several days. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid 80s by Sunday, and lows will
continue at above normal readings in the mid to upper 60s. A return
to the active pattern then begins Monday night as another trough
digs into the western CONUS, and should continue through the end of
the forecast period until the trough ejects out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
451 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
451 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
 THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
 EVENING HOURS...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BUILD
 EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY EARLY
 IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
 THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO STRAIGHT LINE
 WINDS...HAIL...AND FLOODING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE
 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
 EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI..BUT THE
 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MORNING STORMS...AND THE LESS
 CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE LESSER THE POTENTIAL FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVENING WILL BE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ038-039-261745-
LAFAYETTE MO-SALINE MO-
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND WEST
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1200 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CORDER...OR NEAR HIGGINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY...CORDER...ALMA...BLACKBURN AND GRAND PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9342 3906 9371 3919 9368 3923 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 275DEG 18KT 3909 9362

PIETRYCHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1223 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     HAIL             1 NNW FANNING           39.85N 95.17W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       DONIPHAN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL NEAR SPARKS.

&&

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             5 WNW SHAWNEE           39.04N 94.90W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   PUBLIC

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             MARSHALL                39.12N 93.20W
05/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RADIO STATION IN MARSHALL REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             PARKVILLE               39.20N 94.68W
05/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED TO DISPATCH IN PARKVILLE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             MARSHALL                39.12N 93.20W
05/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MARSHALL FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS WITH A LIGHTPOLE DOWN

&&

LG