Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Kansas City, MO

818 
WWUS53 KEAX 261534
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1034 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSC005-043-103-MOC021-165-261600-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-160526T1600Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-DONIPHAN KS-ATCHISON KS-PLATTE MO-BUCHANAN MO-
1034 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH...SOUTH CENTRAL DONIPHAN...EASTERN
ATCHISON...NORTHWESTERN PLATTE AND SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

AT 1034 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TROY TO NEAR EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAVENWORTH...ATCHISON...RUSHVILLE...EASTON...
LEWIS AND CLARK VILLAGE...DONIPHAN...IATAN...LEWIS AND CLARK VI...
POTTER...LOWEMONT...CUMMINGS AND BEAN LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9530 3977 9502 3933 9492 3928 9518
      3942 9518 3942 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 233DEG 21KT 3970 9512 3931 9516 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PIETRYCHA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast over the next 36-48 hours as a shortwave trough
ejects out of the desert Southwest and pushes surface low pressure
from the lee side of the Rockies out into western KS. The primary
focus for convective initiation later today, at least from a
synoptic perspective, will be the dryline stretching from west
central KS through the TX panhandle, and the warm front extending
northeastward from southwest KS through the central Plains. However,
there are many caveats to this synoptic perspective as overnight
convection sets up several possible outflow boundaries in and around
the CWA, and any additional convection that develops and moves
into the region early this morning could also have an impact on
today's storms. High-resolution models are definitely struggling to
resolve the severe potential, with the HRRR developing a cell on the
edge of the LLJ near sunrise in south central NE, expanding the storm
with time, and using its outflow to effectively push the warm front
into our CWA from its forecast afternoon position in southeast NE
through central IA, which then serves as a focus for what can only be
described as convective explosion by mid-afternoon. While that
scenario seems a bit unlikely, the warm front is currently fairly far
south across central KS, and if it does not lift north with time as
is currently forecast, that could result in another scenario with a
result similar to the HRRR forecast. What is known is that plentiful
CAPE and adequate deep-layer shear will be available this afternoon,
setting the stage for severe potential whenever storms do develop or
arrive in the CWA. Based on the large-scale perspective the highest
chances for strong to severe storms should be late this evening into
the night, but with that much instability and a possibility of some
convergence from lingering outflow boundaries, and an unknown
progression of the synoptic warm front, a few storms are at least
possible from late morning onward.

Friday's severe potential will be highly dependent on how much
convection is ongoing Friday morning, and whether or not any
clearing occurs during the afternoon. Shear is actually its highest
over our CWA on Friday evening as the upper trough shifts eastward,
however instability may be more limited and showers and storms may
be ongoing through much of the day with strong upper-level support
for convection melding into the period when isentropic lift/LLJ
support tends to diurnally wane; thus, it may not be possible to
develop robust updrafts later in the day. Storms are still expected
to develop out to our west along the dryline where instability will
be higher, so if we can clear out long enough to build a bit more
supportive lapse rates, these storms could still be strong to severe
when/if they arrive in the CWA later Friday evening or Friday night.

Storm chances decrease for the weekend, and while PoPs are non-zero
due to available moisture, continued southerly flow, and at least
some instability, the overall forcing will decrease late Friday
night and especially Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough departs
and the dryline retreats back to the west, becoming more diffuse and
likely not sparking daily strong/severe convection is it has been
over the last several days. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid 80s by Sunday, and lows will
continue at above normal readings in the mid to upper 60s. A return
to the active pattern then begins Monday night as another trough
digs into the western CONUS, and should continue through the end of
the forecast period until the trough ejects out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to be
possible in the vicinity of all KC-area terminals for a few hours
this morning, then thunderstorm activity should die down temporarily
for late morning and early afternoon. Storms are expected to
redevelop by mid to late afternoon across eastern KS, possibly
nearing the terminals as early as 20z but more likely after 00z.
Ceilings, in general, will stay above 3 kft, but may be briefly
reduced in stronger storms. Several rounds of thunderstorm activity
is expected, and may last through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
451 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
451 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
 THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
 EVENING HOURS...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BUILD
 EASTWARD WITH TIME. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY EARLY
 IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
 THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO STRAIGHT LINE
 WINDS...HAIL...AND FLOODING AS STORMS MOVE EAST.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE
 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
 EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI..BUT THE
 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MORNING STORMS...AND THE LESS
 CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE LESSER THE POTENTIAL FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVENING WILL BE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
955 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HAIL             LENEXA                  38.95N 94.73W
05/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT AT 92ND AND LOIRET BLVD

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
957 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 AM     HAIL             5 S LAKE QUIVIRA        38.97N 94.78W
05/26/2016  E1.50 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR W 87TH ST PARKWAY AND
            RENNER ROAD VIA TWITTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
959 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     HAIL             LENEXA                  38.95N 94.73W
05/26/2016  M0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            0.75 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN LENEXA VIA TWITTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     HAIL             SHAWNEE                 39.01N 94.81W
05/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COMING DOWN IN SHAWNEE
            REPORTED VIA TWITTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HAIL             LENEXA                  38.95N 94.73W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT AT 79TH AND QUIVIRA

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1003 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     HAIL             5 WSW LENEXA            38.93N 94.82W
05/26/2016  E1.50 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE VIA TWITTER OF HAIL JUST SHY OF GOLFBALL SIZED
            NEAR COLLEGE BLVD AND S WOODLAND ST

&&

LG