Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast over the next 36-48 hours as a shortwave trough
ejects out of the desert Southwest and pushes surface low pressure
from the lee side of the Rockies out into western KS. The primary
focus for convective initiation later today, at least from a
synoptic perspective, will be the dryline stretching from west
central KS through the TX panhandle, and the warm front extending
northeastward from southwest KS through the central Plains. However,
there are many caveats to this synoptic perspective as overnight
convection sets up several possible outflow boundaries in and around
the CWA, and any additional convection that develops and moves
into the region early this morning could also have an impact on
today's storms. High-resolution models are definitely struggling to
resolve the severe potential, with the HRRR developing a cell on the
edge of the LLJ near sunrise in south central NE, expanding the storm
with time, and using its outflow to effectively push the warm front
into our CWA from its forecast afternoon position in southeast NE
through central IA, which then serves as a focus for what can only be
described as convective explosion by mid-afternoon. While that
scenario seems a bit unlikely, the warm front is currently fairly far
south across central KS, and if it does not lift north with time as
is currently forecast, that could result in another scenario with a
result similar to the HRRR forecast. What is known is that plentiful
CAPE and adequate deep-layer shear will be available this afternoon,
setting the stage for severe potential whenever storms do develop or
arrive in the CWA. Based on the large-scale perspective the highest
chances for strong to severe storms should be late this evening into
the night, but with that much instability and a possibility of some
convergence from lingering outflow boundaries, and an unknown
progression of the synoptic warm front, a few storms are at least
possible from late morning onward.

Friday's severe potential will be highly dependent on how much
convection is ongoing Friday morning, and whether or not any
clearing occurs during the afternoon. Shear is actually its highest
over our CWA on Friday evening as the upper trough shifts eastward,
however instability may be more limited and showers and storms may
be ongoing through much of the day with strong upper-level support
for convection melding into the period when isentropic lift/LLJ
support tends to diurnally wane; thus, it may not be possible to
develop robust updrafts later in the day. Storms are still expected
to develop out to our west along the dryline where instability will
be higher, so if we can clear out long enough to build a bit more
supportive lapse rates, these storms could still be strong to severe
when/if they arrive in the CWA later Friday evening or Friday night.

Storm chances decrease for the weekend, and while PoPs are non-zero
due to available moisture, continued southerly flow, and at least
some instability, the overall forcing will decrease late Friday
night and especially Saturday and Sunday as the upper trough departs
and the dryline retreats back to the west, becoming more diffuse and
likely not sparking daily strong/severe convection is it has been
over the last several days. High temperatures will gradually warm
from the upper 70s on Friday to the mid 80s by Sunday, and lows will
continue at above normal readings in the mid to upper 60s. A return
to the active pattern then begins Monday night as another trough
digs into the western CONUS, and should continue through the end of
the forecast period until the trough ejects out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADIC
THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. FLOODING WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONCERNING AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE
 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
 EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI..BUT THE
 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MORNING STORMS...AND THE LESS
 CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE LESSER THE POTENTIAL FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVENING WILL BE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     HAIL             5 S GLADSTONE           39.13N 94.57W
05/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR I-29/I-35 AND LEVEE RD
            IN NORTH KANSAS CITY

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
223 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016  E2.75 INCH       JACKSON            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN
            SIBLEY. VIA TWITTER.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
237 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN SIBLEY BY JACKSON
            COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016  E3.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UP TO 3 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS
            OFFICE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
242 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES REPORTED
            DOWN IN SIBLEY BY JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ043-053-054-262045-
HENRY MO-BATES MO-CASS MO-
313 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASS...NORTHEASTERN
BATES AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CREIGHTON...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...URICH...CREIGHTON...BLAIRSTOWN AND BALLARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3844 9432 3858 9420 3859 9412 3857 9411
      3856 9389 3834 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 212DEG 14KT 3846 9417

LG