Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Short Term (Today through Saturday night):

Severe weather will be likely this evening into tonight with all
modes of severe weather possible. Storms that have fired this morning
in a uncapped environment of strong instability between 2000-4000
J/Kg of MUCAPE have continued to fire along subsequent outflow
boundaries and consequently severe storms have persist into the
afternoon. 0-1km shear has been weak however, 0-6km remains strong
between 40-50kts. This strong 0-6km shear is expected to continue
into this evening/tonight as is the aforementioned strong
instability. A warm front analyzed extending from a surface low out
across swrn Kansas extends to near the KS/NE border and into the KC
Metro. This is allowing winds to be backed at the surface and despite
weak low- level shear may still be sufficient to allow tornadoes to
develop. As the event unfolds, supercellular storms from this
afternoon are expected to congeal into a linear mode with winds being
the main threat however with surface winds remaining backed,
tornadoes along the line may still be possible. Also, of concern is
the potential for flash flooding as PWAT values of of 1.75"-2.25"
exist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Models hint that
storms may become anchored on the surface warming front with training
of storms possible. Couple the high PWATs, with previous rainfall
over the past few days and the potential for training...flash
flooding is a threat. Consequently a flash flood watch has been
issued through 18Z tomorrow. Storms are expected to weaken after
midnight be still persist into tomorrow morning. Storms and cloud
cover that persist into the morning hours tomorrow should help to
limit instability tomorrow. Although scattered thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day tomorrow stronger storm are not likely
until later in the evening. This will occur as the upper level trough
moves into western Plains and fires storms along a cold front/dryline
across western Kansas. These storms will progress eastward and move
into the western CWA in a weakened form tomorrow night. On Saturday,
the upper level trough moves into the eastern Plains and weakens but
forces a cold front through the CWA. A few storms could be strong if
conditions could destabilize in the afternoon/evening otherwise
storms will remain sub-severe.

Extended Term: (Sunday through Thursday):

Sunday the upper level trough will swing through the Midwest
however, the cold front will have pushes east of the area and most
of the day should remain dry. However, dry conditions will be short-
lived. As we get into Sunday, the synoptic set-up become very
similar to the one we experienced early this week with a upper
trough over the southwestern CONUS and the local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to eject out from
the southwestern trough and move into the region late Sunday/Sunday
night sparking another round of convection. Conditions will remain
unsettled as we move into next week as several shortwaves eject out
from the slow moving southwestern trough, continuing thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Thunderstorms will affect the terminals thru most of the first 12
hours of the TAF pd. There may be a brief window btn 18Z-20Z where
storms will shift north and east of the TAF site however expect
storms to build back into the terminals around 20Z with a window of
strong storms possible btn 22Z-02Z when mod-hvy tsra will be possible
reducing vsbys to 1SM-3SM and produce wind gusts in excess of 35kts.
Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight before pushing east of
the terminals durg the morning hours. However...models are consistentwith
Low MVFR/IFR cigs building into the terminals tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
144 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADIC
THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. FLOODING WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONCERNING AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAY CONTINUE
 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
 EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI..BUT THE
 SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MORNING STORMS...AND THE LESS
 CLEARING THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAY...THE LESSER THE POTENTIAL FOR
 SEVERE WEATHER THAT EVENING WILL BE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016  E3.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UP TO 3 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS
            OFFICE

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
242 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIBLEY                  39.18N 94.19W
05/26/2016                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES REPORTED
            DOWN IN SIBLEY BY JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

MOZ043-053-054-262045-
HENRY MO-BATES MO-CASS MO-
313 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASS...NORTHEASTERN
BATES AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CREIGHTON...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...URICH...CREIGHTON...BLAIRSTOWN AND BALLARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3844 9432 3858 9420 3859 9412 3857 9411
      3856 9389 3834 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 212DEG 14KT 3846 9417

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             DEARBORN                39.52N 94.77W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ105-MOZ037-043-262100-
JOHNSON KS-JACKSON MO-CASS MO-
325 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON...NORTH
CENTRAL CASS AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 325 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GRANDVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...OVERLAND PARK...INDEPENDENCE...LEE'S SUMMIT...
BLUE SPRINGS...LEAWOOD...RAYTOWN...GRANDVIEW...BELTON...RAYMORE...
GRAIN VALLEY...GREENWOOD...SUGAR CREEK...LAKE LOTAWANA...
LAKE WINNEBAGO...LAKE TAPAWINGO AND UNITY VILLAGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 25.
 INTERSTATE 470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 76.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3877 9438 3888 9467 3914 9452 3903 9416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 208DEG 19KT 3890 9451

MURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             1 SE LEE'S SUMMIT       38.90N 94.37W
05/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING.

&&

BRONIS