Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Tulsa, OK

009 
WWUS54 KTSA 170421
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKC037-111-113-170431-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-150517T0430Z/
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-
1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND EASTERN CREEK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3627 9548 3600 9560 3586 9603 3616 9603
      3616 9600 3625 9600 3644 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 235DEG 48KT 3636 9576 3619 9568
          3594 9580

$$

OKC131-143-145-170430-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-150517T0430Z/
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1121 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAGONER...EASTERN TULSA AND SOUTHERN ROGERS COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM
CDT...

AT 1119 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COLLINSVILLE TO CATOOSA TO BIXBY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...ONETA...CLAREMORE AND TIAWAH

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 252.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 9548 3600 9560 3586 9603 3616 9603
      3616 9600 3625 9600 3644 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 235DEG 48KT 3636 9576 3619 9568
          3594 9580

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ABOUT TO RAMP UP
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. EARLIER SUPERCELL STORMS
OVER WESTERN OK EVOLVING INTO A LARGE QLCS. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE
CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS LINE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND
THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK UNTIL
3 AM AND SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MUCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...GOING TO BE A LONG ONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING...PUSHING INTO NW ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/LOW VISIBILITIES/HEAVY RAIN. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROADLY ADVERTISED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT EVOLVING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING EVENING HOURS..INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FOR DETAILS SEE LATEST
HWO AND NWS TULSA DECISION SUPPORT WEB PAGE.

ENTIRE CWA WITH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXCEPT PAWNEE OSAGE
COUNTIES WHERE PAST WEEKS RAINFALL LESS THAN MOST AREAS
AND 6 HOUR FFG 3+ INCHES.

BOUNDARY LIKELY TO RESIDE NEAR RED RIVER SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS KEEPS HIGHER THREAT RAIN
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT A GOOD THING GIVEN RECENT FLOODS.

SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WESTERN CANADA
RIDGE HOLDING SWAY..WHILE REVOLVING UPPER LOWS DROP INTO
SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS KEEPS SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ABNORMALLY
MOIST / WET PATTERN...FOR ANOTHER WEEK...TEN DAYS...MORE?
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  86  68  85 /  90  10  20  20
FSM   70  85  68  82 /  90  50  70  50
MLC   71  82  68  83 /  90  30  60  30
BVO   67  85  61  83 /  90  10  10  20
FYV   67  81  65  80 /  90  40  50  40
BYV   67  81  65  80 /  90  40  50  40
MKO   68  83  66  83 /  90  20  40  30
MIO   70  84  66  82 /  90  20  20  20
F10   68  83  66  83 /  90  10  40  20
HHW   69  82  68  82 /  80  60  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES MUCH OF TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LARGE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS THEY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF STORMS...
AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND
FESTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT'S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     WYNONA                  36.55N 96.33W
05/16/2015  M57 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     SKIATOOK                36.37N 96.00W
05/16/2015  E60 MPH          OSAGE              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

AEJ