River Flood Advisory 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRATIFORM RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL COME TO
AN END BY AROUND MIDDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
FORM ALONG WHAT IS LIKELY THE TAIL END OF THE OLD PACIFIC FRONT
FROM SE/E CNTRL OK UP INTO NW AR. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WILL STILL
BE THERE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY MUCH
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TONIGHT
ACROSS SE OK INTO W CNTRL AR...WITH MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT AT KFSM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONGOING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE ONGOING
LINE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAKER WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP
STORMS BELOW THE SEVERITY OF THE PAST 6 HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...OWING TO A
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. ANOTHER UPTICK IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS WIND
FIELDS BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  67  84  58 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   86  68  83  65 /  50  60  40  20
MLC   84  68  83  64 /  20  50  30  20
BVO   86  61  83  54 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   81  65  79  57 /  40  40  40  20
BYV   81  66  80  55 /  30  40  30  20
MKO   85  67  83  59 /  20  30  30  20
MIO   85  66  82  54 /  20  10  20  20
F10   85  67  83  61 /  10  20  30  20
HHW   84  69  83  66 /  60  60  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
501 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST MOST DAYS THIS COMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ072-076-170900-
CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN
AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
333 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...CRAWFORD...MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 333 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DRYFORK TO CAMERON...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...CRAWFORD...FRANKLIN...
MADISON...NORTHERN SEBASTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN
LE FLORE AND SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 400 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3612 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9369 3538 9371
      3536 9374 3540 9380 3532 9381 3532 9390
      3523 9392 3523 9402 3516 9403 3509 9475
      3563 9445 3572 9437 3615 9375 3619 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0833Z 262DEG 33KT 3610 9343 3516 9455

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARZ020-170945-
FRANKLIN AR-
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN

AT 410 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A BROAD LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF OZARK TO BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...ALIX...OZARK...BRANCH...PETER
PENDER...MEG...DENNING...CECIL...ALTUS...WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE AND ETNA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...MAINLY FROM ALTUS TO ETNA AND SOUTH.

LAT...LON 3536 9372 3536 9375 3540 9380 3531 9381
      3532 9390 3524 9392 3523 9402 3531 9401
      3549 9395 3556 9371 3553 9370 3538 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 253DEG 48KT 3549 9383 3530 9389

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE BROKEN ARROW      36.03N 95.69W
05/16/2015                   WAGONER            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPRINGLAKE SUB-DIVISION...ABOUT 1 MILE EAST OF ONETA ROAD
            AND HIGHWAY 51 INTERSECTION...MANY LARGE BRANCHES AND
            SOME TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE BROKEN ARROW      36.03N 95.69W
05/16/2015                   WAGONER            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPRINGLAKE SUB-DIVISION...ABOUT 1 MILE EAST OF ONETA ROAD
            AND HIGHWAY 51 INTERSECTION...MANY LARGE BRANCHES AND
            SOME TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

GEW