Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Tulsa, OK

394 
WWUS54 KTSA 170242
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKC113-170300-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-150517T0300Z/
OSAGE OK-
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN OSAGE
COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 941 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHIDLER TO SHIDLER TO FAIRFAX...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...GRAINOLA AND FORAKER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9704 3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3679 9676 3700 9676 3700 9640 3665 9652
      3648 9700 3656 9690 3659 9692 3659 9704
      3668 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 226DEG 48KT 3685 9675 3676 9668
          3664 9672

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

928 
WWUS54 KTSA 170257
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKC113-170308-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-150517T0300Z/
OSAGE OK-
957 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

LAT...LON 3670 9704 3669 9695 3675 9689 3675 9683
      3679 9676 3700 9676 3700 9640 3665 9652
      3648 9700 3656 9690 3659 9692 3659 9704
      3668 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 226DEG 48KT 3700 9656 3691 9649
          3679 9653

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING...PUSHING INTO NW ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/LOW VISIBILITIES/HEAVY RAIN. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROADLY ADVERTISED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT EVOLVING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING EVENING HOURS..INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FOR DETAILS SEE LATEST
HWO AND NWS TULSA DECISION SUPPORT WEB PAGE.

ENTIRE CWA WITH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXCEPT PAWNEE OSAGE
COUNTIES WHERE PAST WEEKS RAINFALL LESS THAN MOST AREAS
AND 6 HOUR FFG 3+ INCHES.

BOUNDARY LIKELY TO RESIDE NEAR RED RIVER SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS KEEPS HIGHER THREAT RAIN
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT A GOOD THING GIVEN RECENT FLOODS.

SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WESTERN CANADA
RIDGE HOLDING SWAY..WHILE REVOLVING UPPER LOWS DROP INTO
SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS KEEPS SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ABNORMALLY
MOIST / WET PATTERN...FOR ANOTHER WEEK...TEN DAYS...MORE?
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AFTER 8 PM
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND AFTER 11 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...HAIL IN THE GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL
RANGE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
AS SUPERCELL STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO BANDS
AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD PERSIST. IF SO...VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND STRONG TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LATE THIS EVENING. THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT BANDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
A LESSER RISK DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF STORMS...
AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND
FESTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT'S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.