Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Tulsa, OK

951 
WWUS54 KTSA 170242 RRA
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

OKC113-117-170300-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-150517T0300Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PAWNEE AND
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 941 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FAIRFAX TO SKEDEE TO QUAY...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...MARAMEC AND BLACKBURN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 9688 3653 9688 3667 9649 3655 9646
      3619 9658 3615 9667 3615 9682 3616 9683
      3624 9682 3624 9692 3625 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 255DEG 51KT 3658 9668 3639 9668
          3618 9672

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ABOUT TO RAMP UP
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. EARLIER SUPERCELL STORMS
OVER WESTERN OK EVOLVING INTO A LARGE QLCS. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE
CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS LINE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND
THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK UNTIL
3 AM AND SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MUCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...GOING TO BE A LONG ONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING...PUSHING INTO NW ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/LOW VISIBILITIES/HEAVY RAIN. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROADLY ADVERTISED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT EVOLVING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING EVENING HOURS..INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FOR DETAILS SEE LATEST
HWO AND NWS TULSA DECISION SUPPORT WEB PAGE.

ENTIRE CWA WITH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXCEPT PAWNEE OSAGE
COUNTIES WHERE PAST WEEKS RAINFALL LESS THAN MOST AREAS
AND 6 HOUR FFG 3+ INCHES.

BOUNDARY LIKELY TO RESIDE NEAR RED RIVER SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS KEEPS HIGHER THREAT RAIN
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT A GOOD THING GIVEN RECENT FLOODS.

SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WESTERN CANADA
RIDGE HOLDING SWAY..WHILE REVOLVING UPPER LOWS DROP INTO
SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS KEEPS SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ABNORMALLY
MOIST / WET PATTERN...FOR ANOTHER WEEK...TEN DAYS...MORE?
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  86  68  85 /  90  10  20  20
FSM   70  85  68  82 /  90  50  70  50
MLC   71  82  68  83 /  90  30  60  30
BVO   67  85  61  83 /  90  10  10  20
FYV   67  81  65  80 /  90  40  50  40
BYV   67  81  65  80 /  90  40  50  40
MKO   68  83  66  83 /  90  20  40  30
MIO   70  84  66  82 /  90  20  20  20
F10   68  83  66  83 /  90  10  40  20
HHW   69  82  68  82 /  80  60  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE STORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES AFTER 8 PM
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND AFTER 11 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...HAIL IN THE GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL
RANGE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
AS SUPERCELL STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO BANDS
AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
DISCRETE CELL OR TWO COULD PERSIST. IF SO...VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND STRONG TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 LATE THIS EVENING. THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT BANDS OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
A LESSER RISK DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF STORMS...
AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND
FESTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT'S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.