Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Tulsa, OK

325 
WGUS74 KTSA 170754
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARC007-015-033-047-087-143-OKC001-171230-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150517T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
ADAIR OK-
254 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...MADISON...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND BENTON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
AND NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF A STILWELL...BERRYVILLE 
LINE.  1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN 
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...CEDARVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...MOUNTAINBURG...NATURAL DAM...ROGERS...
SILOAM SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...AURORA...BARON...BEAVER...BELLA
VISTA...BLACKBURN...BOSTON...BRENTWOOD...CARROLLTON...CASS...CAVE
SPRINGS...CHESTER...CHRISTIE...CINCINNATI...CLIFTY...DECATUR...DEVILS
DEN STATE PARK...DRAKE FIELD AIRPORT...ELKINS AND FARMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9369 3567 9369
      3547 9444 3575 9450 3601 9478 3616 9468
      3616 9457 3630 9459 3651 9445 3650 9330
      3612 9329

$$

179 
WGUS74 KTSA 171224
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
724 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARC007-015-033-047-087-143-OKC001-171238-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-150517T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
ADAIR OK-
724 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
MADISON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND BENTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 730 AM CDT...

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REPLACE THE EXPIRING FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND 
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL LAST NIGHT.

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9369 3567 9369
      3547 9444 3575 9450 3601 9478 3616 9468
      3616 9457 3630 9459 3651 9445 3650 9330
      3612 9329

$$

LACY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...IMPACTING MLC AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAFS SITES THROUGH
08Z. LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH GUSTY WINDS/REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ABOUT TO RAMP UP
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
STORMS MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. EARLIER SUPERCELL STORMS
OVER WESTERN OK EVOLVING INTO A LARGE QLCS. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE
CELLS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS LINE ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND
THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK UNTIL
3 AM AND SEE LITTLE REASON WHY SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH MUCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT...GOING TO BE A LONG ONE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING...PUSHING INTO NW ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/LOW VISIBILITIES/HEAVY RAIN. LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BROADLY ADVERTISED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND HEAVY RAIN
EVENT EVOLVING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING EVENING HOURS..INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FOR DETAILS SEE LATEST
HWO AND NWS TULSA DECISION SUPPORT WEB PAGE.

ENTIRE CWA WITH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXCEPT PAWNEE OSAGE
COUNTIES WHERE PAST WEEKS RAINFALL LESS THAN MOST AREAS
AND 6 HOUR FFG 3+ INCHES.

BOUNDARY LIKELY TO RESIDE NEAR RED RIVER SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS KEEPS HIGHER THREAT RAIN
FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. NOT A GOOD THING GIVEN RECENT FLOODS.

SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH WESTERN CANADA
RIDGE HOLDING SWAY..WHILE REVOLVING UPPER LOWS DROP INTO
SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS KEEPS SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ABNORMALLY
MOIST / WET PATTERN...FOR ANOTHER WEEK...TEN DAYS...MORE?
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES MUCH OF TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LIMITED THREAT OVERNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER MIDNIGHT WESTERN ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

DISCRETE CELLS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LARGE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AS THEY
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED SQUALL LINE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH RELATIVELY LOWER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT OVER INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BANDS OF STORMS...
AND WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT RECENTLY BY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR ALL
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED. EVENT COORDINATORS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MANY OUTDOOR WEEKEND
FESTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY ALONG A STALLING PACIFIC
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS DEVELOPS
OVER THE SAME REGION AFFECTED BY TONIGHT'S STORMS...AND IS THE
SAME AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

SEVERE POTENTIAL DROPS OFF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS GOING TO CREATE ISSUES IN SOME SPOTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HAIL             3 N VINITA              36.68N 95.15W
05/17/2015  E1.75 INCH       CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N TAHLEQUAH           35.99N 94.97W
05/17/2015  E65 MPH          CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA TWITTER

1252 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW JAY               36.42N 94.81W
05/17/2015  E60 MPH          DELAWARE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE FAIRLAND          36.70N 94.82W
05/17/2015                   OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND HOMES DAMAGED NEAR 590 AND 220 ROAD
            FROM PROBABLE TORNADO.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

OKZ073>075-170715-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...EASTERN PITTSBURG AND WESTERN LATIMER

AT 114 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF ENTERPRISE TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
BLANCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN HASKELL...EASTERN PITTSBURG AND WESTERN
LATIMER COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 215 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3473 9586 3528 9551 3532 9539 3529 9535
      3530 9531 3526 9524 3531 9520 3531 9517
      3534 9518 3535 9514 3537 9516 3538 9514
      3537 9512 3543 9503 3475 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 242DEG 19KT 3524 9541 3471 9575

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
118 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE ONETA              36.03N 95.70W
05/16/2015                   WAGONER            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE AND HOME DAMAGE. POWER POLES SNAPPED. ROOF AND HOME
            DAMAGE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GRAVETTE          36.44N 94.52W
05/17/2015                   BENTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE FELL ON A HOUSE NEAR BEATY AND LEONARD RANCH ROADS.

&&

KAH