River Flood Advisory 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
536 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...WIDESPREAD FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND THURSDAY AND
RIVER FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING WILL BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN ALONG WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE OUTER FEEDER
BANDS MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES AND LOCALLY OVER 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING.

ALSO...A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WITHIN THE FEEDER BANDS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH
COULD CREATE A LIMITED THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. TORNADOES
FORMED IN THIS MANNER ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED AND OFTEN RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT ARE STILL DANGEROUS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL CREATE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY BECOME A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
	   HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN LIFE THREATENING FLOODING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE
FLOODING OF MAIN STEAM RIVERS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS SHOULD ANTICIPATE FLOODING OF AT
LEAST THE MAGNITUDE THAT OCCURRED AT THE END OF MAY AND MAKE
CONTINGENCY PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.