Tornado Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

830 
WWUS54 KFWD 092134
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXC133-092215-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150509T2215Z/
EASTLAND TX-
434 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL EASTLAND COUNTY...
        
AT 433 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
CISCO...NEAR HIGHWAY 206...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND THREE INCH HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  CISCO AROUND 440 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 330 AND 332.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 9899 3233 9891 3227 9902 3230 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 254DEG 12KT 3231 9899 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...3.00IN

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WE HAVE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT WILL MOST LIKELY
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. INGREDIENTS INCLUDE
(1)AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (2)STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE
BASE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG (3) MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WITH SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300+ M2/S2(4) AN APPROACHING DRY
LINE (5) AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW. WE WERE CAPPED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
CAP IS WEAKENING OR HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 3 PM. WE EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET BOTH ON THE DRYLINE AND
ON SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THIS MORNING. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THE DRY LINE STORMS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED IN RESPONSE TO MESO SCALE FEATURES.
GENERAL STORM MOTION TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...SOME
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COUNTIES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

THE SEVERITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LESS OF
A TORNADO THREAT AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.

ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT WHERE THEY FORM WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR EAST THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE STORMS TONIGHT. SINCE ALL
THE SAME INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SOME DEGREE TOMORROW...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS OF NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOW SINCE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING.

LOOKING AHEAD...IT APPEARS THAT NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A WET
AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/
NUMEROUS AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. IN THE
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000FT. TEMPORARY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FT ARE LIKELY FROM 20Z THROUGH
SUNSET WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING
AND BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNRISE AND SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
SUNDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  81  70  80  58 /  60  80  80  30  20
WACO, TX              70  84  69  81  57 /  60  80  80  60  50
PARIS, TX             69  80  67  78  58 /  50  80  80  40  20
DENTON, TX            70  79  65  78  56 /  60  80  80  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  81  67  79  57 /  60  80  80  30  20
DALLAS, TX            72  81  69  79  59 /  60  80  80  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  81  70  82  59 /  60  80  80  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  81  70  81  61 /  60  70  80  60  50
TEMPLE, TX            72  83  69  84  59 /  60  70  80  60  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  76  62  76  56 /  60  80  50  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>105-
115>120.

&&

82/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ093-091915-
GRAYSON-
141 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRAYSON COUNTY...

AT 138 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH GRAYSON
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HOWE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH
OF SHERMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE STRONGEST STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOM BEAN AROUND 145 PM CDT.
  BELLS AROUND 155 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3377 9650 3378 9644 3377 9642 3375 9641
      3373 9638 3340 9639 3342 9694 3375 9694
      3380 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 229DEG 42KT 3351 9660

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN ALSTYNE             33.42N  96.58W
05/09/2015                   GRAYSON            TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 75 EXIT 51 NEAR
            VAN ALSTYNE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BONHAM                  33.59N  96.18W
05/09/2015                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A COUPLE OF HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING ACROSS POPULAR
            STREET IN BONHAM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
206 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ093-091945-
GRAYSON TX-
206 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

AT 204 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO STRONG STORMS IN
NORTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY. ONE STORM WAS NEAR POTTSBORO...AND THE
OTHER WAS NEAR KNOLLWOOD. BOTH WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DENISON AROUND 210 PM CDT.
  EISENHOWER STATE PARK AROUND 220 PM CDT.
  SOUTHEASTERN LAKE TEXOMA AROUND 245 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3390 9659 3388 9659 3385 9663
      3382 9658 3382 9653 3377 9650 3378 9643
      3373 9638 3364 9638 3367 9684 3387 9681
      3387 9679 3383 9677 3382 9675 3384 9669
      3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 208DEG 36KT 3372 9673 3371 9660

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             PAT MAYSE LAKE          33.83N  95.60W
05/09/2015  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS NEAR
            LAMAR POINT NEAR PAT MAYSE LAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             2 SW CISCO              32.36N  98.99W
05/09/2015  E3.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ORANGE-SIZED HAL JUST SOUTH OF CISCO.