Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Fort Worth, TX

049 
WGUS74 KFWD 100012
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXC503-100100-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150510T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YOUNG TX-
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 711 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A 
THUNDERSTORM ALONG HIGHWAY 380 WEST OF NEWCASTLE...WHERE WATER WAS 
FLOWING OVER THE ROAD. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. 
FLASH FLOODING IS REMAINS IMMINENT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 9894 3335 9842 3297 9843 3296 9895

$$

05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY UNSETTLED AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WE HAVE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT WILL MOST LIKELY
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. INGREDIENTS INCLUDE
(1)AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (2)STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE
BASE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG (3) MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WITH SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300+ M2/S2(4) AN APPROACHING DRY
LINE (5) AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM A FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW. WE WERE CAPPED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
CAP IS WEAKENING OR HAS DISSIPATED AS OF 3 PM. WE EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET BOTH ON THE DRYLINE AND
ON SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THIS MORNING. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
HOWEVER...THE DRY LINE STORMS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY WHERE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED IN RESPONSE TO MESO SCALE FEATURES.
GENERAL STORM MOTION TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...SOME
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THERE WILL BE A HIGH THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COUNTIES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

THE SEVERITY OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT WITH LESS OF
A TORNADO THREAT AND MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
THREAT.

ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT WHERE THEY FORM WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR EAST THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE STORMS TONIGHT. SINCE ALL
THE SAME INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SOME DEGREE TOMORROW...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FINALLY WORKS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS OF NOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK APPEARS LOW SINCE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING.

LOOKING AHEAD...IT APPEARS THAT NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A WET
AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/
NUMEROUS AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. IN THE
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000FT. TEMPORARY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z...ESPECIALLY AT THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FT ARE LIKELY FROM 20Z THROUGH
SUNSET WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING
AND BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNRISE AND SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
SUNDAY.

A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  81  70  80  58 /  60  80  80  30  20
WACO, TX              70  84  69  81  57 /  60  80  80  60  50
PARIS, TX             69  80  67  78  58 /  50  80  80  40  20
DENTON, TX            70  79  65  78  56 /  60  80  80  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  81  67  79  57 /  60  80  80  30  20
DALLAS, TX            72  81  69  79  59 /  60  80  80  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  81  70  82  59 /  60  80  80  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  81  70  81  61 /  60  70  80  60  50
TEMPLE, TX            72  83  69  84  59 /  60  70  80  60  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  76  62  76  56 /  60  80  50  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>105-
115>120.

&&

82/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
425 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             2 SW CISCO              32.36N  98.99W
05/09/2015  E3.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ORANGE-SIZED HAL JUST SOUTH OF CISCO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
437 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     TORNADO          7 SSW CISCO             32.29N  99.02W
05/09/2015                   EASTLAND           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SPOTTERS HAVE SENT PHOTO CONFIRMING A TORNADO
            SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CISCO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
439 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             CISCO                   32.38N  98.97W
05/09/2015  E1.50 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   PUBLIC

            PING PONG SIZED HAIL IN CISCO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ092-092230-
COOKE TX-
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 446 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LINDSAY...OR NEAR GAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY...CALLISBURG AND VALLEY VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 487 AND 503.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3395 9695 3346 9706 3353 9738 3354 9738
      3386 9729 3387 9725 3390 9725 3392 9723
      3389 9718 3386 9717 3381 9721 3376 9719
      3372 9711 3374 9709 3381 9709 3382 9705
      3385 9709 3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 195DEG 29KT 3364 9721

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
504 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TORNADO          3 W MANGUM              32.32N  98.90W
05/09/2015                   EASTLAND           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TORNADO JUST WEST OF MANGUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             EASTLAND                32.40N  98.82W
05/09/2015  E3.00 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   PUBLIC

            3.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORTED IN EASTLAND.