Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING PROBLEMS THIS
WEEKEND...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. TWO DAY RAIN TOTALS MAY
EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS AND PRODUCE BOTH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND LONG DURATION AREAL FLOODING. THUS...WE HAVE
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH TO COVER AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO DALLAS TO GREENVILLE TO PARIS LINE
THROUGH MONDAY 7 AM.

OUR AIR MASS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THIS WEEKEND AS VERY
UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH OVER THE REGION WHILE STRONG
UPPER UPPER DYNAMICS PROVIDE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ON
SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AS HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SFC-3KM HELICITY OF
200-400 M2/S2...SFC CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-50 KNOTS. ON SUNDAY...THE HELICITY IS DOWN TO AROUND 250
M2/S2...WHILE SFC CAPE REMAINS AROUND 2500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ANY SUPERCELL COULD
PRODUCE A TORNADO.

COME MONDAY...WE STILL THINK A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
CWA AND PUSH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY.
THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND UNSTABLE AIR ALONG IT AND
ABOVE IT ALONG WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...WILL RESULT IN DAILY CONVECTION THROUGH LATE
WEEK. ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARRIVES TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
ONE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A THIRD ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY.
THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE A DAILY EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE AIR
MASS LESS UNSTABLE AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH HIGH PWATS
VALUES WHICH WOULD LIMIT OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COME FRIDAY THE AIR MASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE RISING ABOVE 2000J/KG.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

WE ARE STILL WATCHING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY 'MAY'
AFFECT DFW AIRPORTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...THOUGH HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED THE PAST 72 HRS WITH EVOLUTION AND
TIMING. I DID REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AROUND MIDNIGHT...
SINCE STORMS ARE A GOOD 2-3 HRS AWAY NEAR KBKD AND K0F2.

ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
RETURN AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTS MAY BE VARIABLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.    05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  69  80  64  77 /  70  60  80  80  30
WACO, TX              84  69  82  66  80 /  60  50  80  80  60
PARIS, TX             80  69  79  64  77 /  60  60  80  80  40
DENTON, TX            79  67  78  61  75 /  70  60  80  80  20
MCKINNEY, TX          80  67  79  63  76 /  70  60  80  80  30
DALLAS, TX            81  69  80  64  77 /  70  60  80  80  30
TERRELL, TX           81  70  81  66  79 /  60  60  80  80  50
CORSICANA, TX         83  71  82  67  80 /  60  40  70  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            85  70  83  66  81 /  60  40  70  80  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  67  78  61  74 /  60  60  80  60  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ105-115>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>104.

&&

/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY AND TODAY. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON SUNDAY WHEN SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
139 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E BRECKENRIDGE        32.75N  98.85W
05/09/2015                   STEPHENS           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 180 EAST OF BRECKENRIDGE PARTIALLY CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER ON THE ROAD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
140 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE BRECKENRIDGE       32.71N  98.85W
05/08/2015                   STEPHENS           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM207 WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ100-115-091130-
STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
546 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOUNG AND NORTHERN STEPHENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 545 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAHAM...BRECKENRIDGE...OLNEY...CRYSTAL FALLS...NEWCASTLE AND US-
180 NEAR THE SHACKELFORD-STEPHENS COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9910 3296 9895 3340 9895 3340 9842
      3295 9843 3295 9857 3287 9858 3265 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1045Z 239DEG 37KT 3291 9898

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ101-091230-
JACK TX-
643 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACK COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

AT 643 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BRYSON...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSBORO...BRYSON AND NEWPORT.

LAT...LON 3347 9798 3344 9798 3343 9792 3324 9792
      3302 9842 3346 9842 3347 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 242DEG 34KT 3320 9838

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

TXZ091-091315-
MONTAGUE TX-
737 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY UNTIL
815 AM CDT...

AT 736 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NEWPORT...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF JACKSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...NOCONA AND STONEBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 9757 3344 9788 3343 9789 3343 9793
      3344 9794 3344 9798 3366 9798 3385 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 225DEG 26KT 3343 9807

DUNN