Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
931 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.UPDATE...

BUSY NIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER MATCH WHERE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADDED
YOUNG AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. KFWS 88D VAD PROFILE AND EVENING FWD
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT OF RICH
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...THUS STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY MODERATE RAIN AND
SOME CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORT
WAVE LIFT WEAKENS.

WILL BE WORKING TORNADO WATCH 146 THE REST OF THE SHIFT AND MAY
PULL COUNTIES IF THE THREAT WANES BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT 3 AM.
OTHERWISE...THE TORNADO THREAT IS WANING BUT THE SEVERE HAIL
THREAT...AND MAYBE A WIND THREAT...WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE
METROPLEX A FEW MORE HOURS. IF THE WEST END OF THE STORMS LAYS
DOWN WEST TO EAST ALONG/NORTH I-20...THEN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WOULD INCREASE GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 700 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS CONTINUE REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING AND MAIN WINDOW FOR
TSRA ACROSS DFW METRO TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION IS
MAKING TIMING MVFR CIGS BACK INTO THE REGION DIFFICULT DUE TO
MIXING FROM STORMS. A LITTLE PATCHY HIGH MVFR WAS AROUND
KGKY...HOWEVER WE EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL TO 04Z-05Z WITH MVFR
CIGS PREVAILING UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. INFLOW INTO STORMS TO
THE NORTHWEST HAVE RESULTED IN GUSTY SE WINDS AROUND 15
KTS...THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE BY 02Z-03Z UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER WINDOW FOR THE TEMPO GROUP FOR
STORMS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES...AS EVEN HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TIMING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WILL CARRY SOME -RA/-SHRA
WITH VCTS REMAINING...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON COMPLEX OF STORMS NEAR WACO HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR HIGH CIGS SHOULD LAST TIL 02Z-03Z
AT WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS RETURN WITH THE LLJ INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA. ELEVATED -RA/-SHRA AND VCTS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WAS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AS PER THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED
THAT A CAP OF WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO BREAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN A LINE AS THE MOVE NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE. ALL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HEAVY RAIN
FELL ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTH TEXAS MAY INITIALLY START OUT THE MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO REMAINING MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE BEST
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON SATURDAY SINCE IT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON
WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO THE STATE. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAVE A GOOD
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY BASED ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE IT NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIFT
OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP SOME GOOD RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  81  70  82  65 /  60  60  60  80  70
WACO, TX              70  83  69  81  67 /  40  50  50  70  70
PARIS, TX             69  79  70  80  65 /  60  50  60  80  70
DENTON, TX            69  78  69  77  59 /  70  60  60  80  70
MCKINNEY, TX          70  80  68  82  64 /  60  60  60  80  70
DALLAS, TX            72  80  71  82  67 /  60  60  60  80  70
TERRELL, TX           71  81  70  84  69 /  50  50  60  80  70
CORSICANA, TX         71  83  72  83  68 /  40  40  40  70  70
TEMPLE, TX            71  84  71  83  70 /  40  40  40  70  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  81  70  78  61 /  80  60  60  70  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>104-
115-116.

AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ145-159-
161.

&&

/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE THE THREATS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20 TO THE RED RIVER WHERE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DIMINISH HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOWIE                   33.57N  97.85W
05/08/2015  M66 MPH          MONTAGUE           TX   ASOS

            66 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY THE BOWIE, TX AUTOMATED
            WEATHER OBSERVATION SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
802 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             8 W GRAHAM              33.10N  98.74W
05/08/2015  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GLF BALL HAIL 8 W OF GRAHAM ON FM 3109

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             3 NW BRECKENRIDGE       32.78N  98.94W
05/08/2015  E1.50 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF HUBBARD CREEK
            LAKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
957 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ102-090345-
WISE TX-
957 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISE COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHICO...OR NEAR BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...ALVORD...CHICO...RUNAWAY BAY AND LAKE
BRIDGEPORT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3342 9740 3328 9744 3313 9783 3330 9792
      3342 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 246DEG 30KT 3325 9780

15-BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ092-093-090345-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON AND
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF CALLISBURG...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALLISBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE TEXOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3387 9689 3385 9686 3385 9684 3387 9684
      3386 9678 3382 9676 3383 9673 3381 9671
      3366 9700 3378 9709 3385 9709 3386 9706
      3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698
      3394 9697 3396 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 235DEG 51KT 3382 9700

15-BAIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NOCONA                  33.78N  97.73W
05/08/2015                   MONTAGUE           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
            MONTAGUE COUNTY PER 10 PM NEWS VIDEO.