Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

WE ARE STILL WATCHING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY 'MAY'
AFFECT DFW AIRPORTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE...THOUGH HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED THE PAST 72 HRS WITH EVOLUTION AND
TIMING. I DID REMOVE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AROUND MIDNIGHT...
SINCE STORMS ARE A GOOD 2-3 HRS AWAY NEAR KBKD AND K0F2.

ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
RETURN AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTS MAY BE VARIABLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
CANCELING COUNTIES OF TARRANT...DALLAS...COLLINS...ROCKWALL...
FANNIN AND HUNT FROM TORNADO WATCH 146.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WAS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AS PER THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED
THAT A CAP OF WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WE
EXPECT THE CAP TO BREAK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD IN A LINE AS THE MOVE NORTHEAST. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE. ALL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HEAVY RAIN
FELL ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTH TEXAS MAY INITIALLY START OUT THE MORNING WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO REMAINING MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE BEST
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ON SATURDAY SINCE IT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON
WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO ENTER INTO THE STATE. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED ALONG THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAVE A GOOD
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY BASED ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY NIGHT AND LEAVE IT NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIFT
OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP SOME GOOD RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  81  70  82  65 /  50  60  60  80  70
WACO, TX              70  83  69  81  67 /  50  50  50  70  70
PARIS, TX             69  79  70  80  65 /  50  50  60  80  70
DENTON, TX            69  78  69  77  59 /  70  60  60  80  70
MCKINNEY, TX          70  80  68  82  64 /  50  60  60  80  70
DALLAS, TX            72  80  71  82  67 /  50  60  60  80  70
TERRELL, TX           71  81  70  84  69 /  30  50  60  80  70
CORSICANA, TX         71  83  72  83  68 /  30  50  40  70  70
TEMPLE, TX            71  84  71  83  70 /  50  50  40  70  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  81  70  78  61 /  80  60  60  70  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>104-
115-116.

AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ145-159-
161.

&&

05/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-100445-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TO THE RED
RIVER WHERE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DIMINISH HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
802 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             8 W GRAHAM              33.10N  98.74W
05/08/2015  E1.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GLF BALL HAIL 8 W OF GRAHAM ON FM 3109

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             3 NW BRECKENRIDGE       32.78N  98.94W
05/08/2015  E1.50 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF HUBBARD CREEK
            LAKE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
957 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ102-090345-
WISE TX-
957 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISE COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHICO...OR NEAR BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...ALVORD...CHICO...RUNAWAY BAY AND LAKE
BRIDGEPORT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3342 9740 3328 9744 3313 9783 3330 9792
      3342 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 246DEG 30KT 3325 9780

15-BAIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ092-093-090345-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
1001 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON AND
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF CALLISBURG...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALLISBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE TEXOMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3387 9689 3385 9686 3385 9684 3387 9684
      3386 9678 3382 9676 3383 9673 3381 9671
      3366 9700 3378 9709 3385 9709 3386 9706
      3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698
      3394 9697 3396 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 235DEG 51KT 3382 9700

15-BAIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NOCONA                  33.78N  97.73W
05/08/2015                   MONTAGUE           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF
            MONTAGUE COUNTY PER 10 PM NEWS VIDEO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ094-095-090530-
LAMAR TX-FANNIN TX-
1147 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND NORTHERN
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1147 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF HONEY GROVE...OR 17 MILES WEST OF PARIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONEY GROVE AND RAVENNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9556 3388 9554 3389 9551 3387 9544
      3359 9582 3366 9627 3374 9623 3377 9617
      3384 9615 3386 9603 3384 9602 3387 9600
      3386 9595 3389 9594 3384 9584 3386 9581
      3384 9577 3389 9575 3388 9570 3394 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 226DEG 40KT 3374 9584

15-BAIN