Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF SAT/SSF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO END TSRA BY 13-14Z...WHILE TSRA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
16Z AT AUS WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT SAT/SSF FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT AUS THROUGH 16Z
ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS TO MIX BEFORE THEN. TSRA ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT DRT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SITE.

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS PACIFIC MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE...BUT ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21-22 AT SAT/SSF. BASED ON HI-RES
MODEL TRENDS AND A GENERALLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...A
LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z AT DRT AND
3-4Z AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS SHOULD HELP REFINE THESE TIMES WITH THE NEXT AFD. RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD END TSRA CHANCES BY
SUNRISE WITH NW WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE METRO CITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES STACKING UP OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CRUISING AT 30 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AREAS OF TRAINING EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FORM IN AN UPSTREAM PROPAGATION REGION BY
DAYBREAK AND LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. WILL WANT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A FFA. STORM TOTAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR
NOW REMAIN AT 2-4...ISOLATED 6...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND OUTSIDE THE EFFECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THREAT...THE
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS THE LOOK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON ELEVATED
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHOUT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ROTATING STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO
OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
40-55 KNOTS AND CAPES EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR AN MCS THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW SURGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY DAYBREAK. THUS PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END AT AROUND DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LEAVES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF MILD AND DRY DAYS TO RECOVER...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS RACING ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TAKE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM...BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL PERIODS OF
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  66  78  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  66  79  54  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  67  82  56  79 /  80  90  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  62  74  54  75 /  90  90  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  61  79  53  82 /  70  70  20  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  65  76  54  75 /  90  90  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  65  83  54  80 /  90  80  30  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  67  80  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  70  80  58  76 /  70  80  70  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  67  82  57  80 /  90  90  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  68  84  58  80 /  80  80  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-302015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
301 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY WEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE I35 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING AND EVOLVE INTO PRIMARILY
A HEAVY RAIN AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH BY WEDNESDAY BUT NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ191-301030-
HAYS TX-
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTY UNTIL
530 AM CDT...

AT 440 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WOODCREEK...OR NEAR WIMBERLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...WOODCREEK...BEAR CREEK...DRIFTWOOD AND
MOUNT GAINOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9791 2990 9810 3003 9828 3033 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 204DEG 21KT 3003 9815

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ205-221-301115-
WILSON TX-BEXAR TX-
529 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
BEXAR COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 529 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES EAST OF LEMING...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLORESVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORESVILLE...ST. HEDWIG...ELMENDORF...LA VERNIA...CALAVERAS LAKE...
SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...ZUEHL...FRIENDLY CORNER...PARITA...ADKINS AND
CANADA VERDE.

LAT...LON 2912 9841 2952 9821 2951 9819 2949 9819
      2950 9818 2950 9817 2948 9816 2948 9812
      2946 9812 2943 9814 2936 9811 2938 9809
      2938 9794 2890 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 209DEG 29KT 2907 9833

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ190>192-301145-
TRAVIS TX-BLANCO TX-HAYS TX-
600 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BLANCO...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM
CDT...

AT 600 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DRIPPING SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRIPPING SPRINGS...LAKEWAY...LAGO VISTA...THE HILLS...CYPRESS MILL...
DRIFTWOOD...BRIARCLIFF AND MOUNT GAINOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9804 3061 9802 3009 9797 3006 9818
      3047 9828 3043 9813 3046 9810 3049 9810
      3048 9812 3050 9812 3062 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 171DEG 37KT 3015 9809

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEON VALLEY             29.50N  98.61W
10/30/2015                   BEXAR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HUEBNER CREEK IS OVER EVERS AND POSS ROAD. 2.75 INCHES
            OF RAIN SO FAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500822

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAN ANTONIO             29.43N  98.49W
10/30/2015                   BEXAR              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 10 STREETS CLOSED ACROSS THE CITY OF SAN
            ANTONIO DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500823

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORESVILLE             29.14N  98.16W
10/30/2015                   WILSON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS DAMAGE ON THE NW SIDE OF FLORESVILLE. TIN
            SCATTERED ABOUT PARKING LOTS. A CHAINLINK FENCE HAS BEEN
            BLOWN OVER. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OBSERVED. POWER IS OUT
            ACROSS THE TOWN. MOST OF THE DAMAGE IS NEAR HWY 181 AND
            HWY 97. 45 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST OBSERVED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500824