Flash Flood Watch 20, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Llano County, TX, Medina County, TX, Travis County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
329 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE METRO CITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES STACKING UP OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CRUISING AT 30 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AREAS OF TRAINING EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FORM IN AN UPSTREAM PROPAGATION REGION BY
DAYBREAK AND LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. WILL WANT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A FFA. STORM TOTAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR
NOW REMAIN AT 2-4...ISOLATED 6...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND OUTSIDE THE EFFECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THREAT...THE
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS THE LOOK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON ELEVATED
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHOUT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ROTATING STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO
OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
40-55 KNOTS AND CAPES EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR AN MCS THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW SURGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY DAYBREAK. THUS PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END AT AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LEAVES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF MILD AND DRY DAYS TO RECOVER...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS RACING ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TAKE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM...BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL PERIODS OF
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  66  78  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  66  79  54  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  67  82  56  79 /  80  90  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  62  74  54  75 /  90  90  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  61  79  53  82 /  70  70  20  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  65  76  54  75 /  90  90  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  65  83  54  80 /  90  80  30  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  67  80  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  70  80  58  76 /  70  80  70  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  67  82  57  80 /  90  90  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  68  84  58  80 /  80  80  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-302015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
301 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
MAINLY WEST OF A KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE I35 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY EVENING AND EVOLVE INTO PRIMARILY
A HEAVY RAIN AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH BY WEDNESDAY BUT NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ203-218-300845-
ZAVALA TX-UVALDE TX-
307 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE AND
NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 306 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BATESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE
AND NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2886 9960 2892 9980 2938 9968 2931 9941
      2925 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 198DEG 24KT 2897 9968

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ203-300915-
UVALDE TX-
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 330 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF BATESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2929 9961 2929 9943 2915 9947 2909 9949
      2909 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 205DEG 20KT 2909 9961

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ204-300930-
MEDINA TX-
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MEDINA COUNTY UNTIL 430
AM CDT...

AT 348 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
D'HANIS...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONDO AND D'HANIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2923 9941 2927 9942 2963 9926 2962 9898
      2958 9898 2917 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0848Z 204DEG 35KT 2928 9930

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ188-301000-
GILLESPIE TX-
408 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY UNTIL
500 AM CDT...

AT 408 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF INGRAM...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KERRVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREDERICKSBURG...CHERRY SPRING...TIVYDALE AND HARPER.

LAT...LON 3034 9877 3014 9899 3013 9919 3013 9927
      3016 9930 3022 9930 3050 9902 3050 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0908Z 227DEG 23KT 3018 9921

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
421 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 AM     TSTM WND DMG     D'HANIS                 29.33N  99.28W
10/30/2015                   MEDINA             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MEDINA CO SHERIFF REPORTS TREE DAMAGE AND SOME HOMES
            DAMAGED IN THE TOWN OF DHANIS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500821

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ191-206-301015-
COMAL TX-HAYS TX-
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COMAL AND SOUTHERN HAYS
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 424 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW BRAUNFELS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...WIMBERLEY...CANYON LAKE DAM...KYLE...
CANYON LAKE...WOODCREEK...HUNTER...SOLMS...GRUENE...SATTLER...
FREIHEIT...HAYS CITY AND REDWOOD.

LAT...LON 2999 9784 2981 9793 2975 9801 2969 9808
      2965 9818 2968 9829 3010 9813
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 204DEG 22KT 2971 9817

ALLEN