River Flood Warning 109, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35
TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF SAT/SSF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO END TSRA BY 13-14Z...WHILE TSRA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
16Z AT AUS WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE THROUGH.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR AT SAT/SSF FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE AT AUS THROUGH 16Z
ALLOWING FOR TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS TO MIX BEFORE THEN. TSRA ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT DRT THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SITE.

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS PACIFIC MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE...BUT ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21-22 AT SAT/SSF. BASED ON HI-RES
MODEL TRENDS AND A GENERALLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...A
LINE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 23Z AT DRT AND
3-4Z AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS SHOULD HELP REFINE THESE TIMES WITH THE NEXT AFD. RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD END TSRA CHANCES BY
SUNRISE WITH NW WINDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING THE METRO CITIES DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES STACKING UP OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING MEANS THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NEGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS CRUISING AT 30 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY MINIMAL AREAS OF TRAINING EXPECTED. CURRENTLY EXPECT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FORM IN AN UPSTREAM PROPAGATION REGION BY
DAYBREAK AND LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. WILL WANT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS BEFORE CONSIDERING A FFA. STORM TOTAL EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR
NOW REMAIN AT 2-4...ISOLATED 6...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND OUTSIDE THE EFFECTIVE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK SEVERE THREAT...THE
MORNING ACTIVITY HAS THE LOOK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BASED ON ELEVATED
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHOUT MUCH INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ROTATING STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT TO
OCCUR TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES
40-55 KNOTS AND CAPES EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CLEAR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH POPS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR AN MCS THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF I-35 IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COOL OUTFLOW SURGING THE CONVECTIVE LINE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST TX BY DAYBREAK. THUS PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO END AT AROUND DAYBREAK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LEAVES ANOTHER COUPLE
OF MILD AND DRY DAYS TO RECOVER...BUT BY LATE TUESDAY MOISTURE
BEGINS RACING ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WILL TAKE THE HIGH PWAT VALUES SHOWN BY THE GFS WITH SOME
DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM...BUT CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL PERIODS OF
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  66  78  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  66  79  54  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  67  82  56  79 /  80  90  40  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  62  74  54  75 /  90  90  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  61  79  53  82 /  70  70  20  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  65  76  54  75 /  90  90  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  65  83  54  80 /  90  80  30  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  67  80  57  77 /  80  90  40  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79  70  80  58  76 /  70  80  70  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  67  82  57  80 /  90  90  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           81  68  84  58  80 /  80  80  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
811 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-311315-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
811 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING...AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON LOCAL TIME
ALONG AND EAST OF KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENTLY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES CLEAR
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. A STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH BY WEDNESDAY BUT NO WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

TXZ190>192-301145-
TRAVIS TX-BLANCO TX-HAYS TX-
600 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BLANCO...
NORTHWESTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN HAYS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM
CDT...

AT 600 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DRIPPING SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRIPPING SPRINGS...LAKEWAY...LAGO VISTA...THE HILLS...CYPRESS MILL...
DRIFTWOOD...BRIARCLIFF AND MOUNT GAINOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 9804 3061 9802 3009 9797 3006 9818
      3047 9828 3043 9813 3046 9810 3049 9810
      3048 9812 3050 9812 3062 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 171DEG 37KT 3015 9809

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEON VALLEY             29.50N  98.61W
10/30/2015                   BEXAR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HUEBNER CREEK IS OVER EVERS AND POSS ROAD. 2.75 INCHES
            OF RAIN SO FAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500822

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SAN ANTONIO             29.43N  98.49W
10/30/2015                   BEXAR              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 10 STREETS CLOSED ACROSS THE CITY OF SAN
            ANTONIO DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500823

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
641 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORESVILLE             29.14N  98.16W
10/30/2015                   WILSON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS DAMAGE ON THE NW SIDE OF FLORESVILLE. TIN
            SCATTERED ABOUT PARKING LOTS. A CHAINLINK FENCE HAS BEEN
            BLOWN OVER. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OBSERVED. POWER IS OUT
            ACROSS THE TOWN. MOST OF THE DAMAGE IS NEAR HWY 181 AND
            HWY 97. 45 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST OBSERVED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500824

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FLORESVILLE             29.14N  98.16W
10/30/2015                   WILSON             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DAMAGE
            TO THE HIGH SCHOOL IN FLORESVILLE. PICTURES SHOW A HOLE
            IN THE WALL WITH DAMAGE WHERE THE ROOF MEETS THE WALLS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500825

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     TORNADO          3 ENE HUNTER            29.82N  97.98W
10/30/2015                   HAYS               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM CONFIRMED MODERN WOOD-FRAME HOUSE HAS
            MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DEBRIS PATTERN INDICATIVE OF
            TORNADO...FORMAL STORM SURVEY TBD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500826

LJH