Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1012

June 16, 20145 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2014, 10:19 AM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2014, 10:19 AM CDT (15:19 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2014, 12:15 PM CDT
In force
116 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 156 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mills County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monona County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Page County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Rock County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Watonwan County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Atchison County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Worth County, MO, Burt County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2014-06-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 33 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2014-06-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 137 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
33 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-485 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1667 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
236 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

022 
ACUS11 KWNS 161520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161519 
IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-161715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA/FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...

VALID 161519Z - 161715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS -- POSING A CONTINUED RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL -- MAY ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
WRN IA AND ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN QUARTER OF SD.  STORMS
REMAIN ELEVATED ATTM...LIMITING PRIMARY SEVERE RISK TO LARGE HAIL.

WITH TIME HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN IA/SWRN MN VICINITY
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA. 
WHILE HEATING IS BEING HAMPERED IN MOST AREAS BY EXPANDING ANVIL
DEBRIS...EXPECT THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED
WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.  

CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL THAT
THE SD CONVECTION AND THAT OVER ERN NEB MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A
LARGE MCS...AND GIVEN INCREASING CAPE ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DOWNSTREAM WW WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY MIDDAY.

..GOSS.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
LBF...

LAT...LON   40739210 40259362 40049512 40089687 40379727 41399709
            42379818 42989881 43749947 44669754 45239381 43219260
            40739210

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 16, 7:12 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFremont, Harrison, Lyon, Mills, Monona, Plymouth and 4 more9 hr
Jun 16, 12:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAudubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee and 33 more8 hr
Jun 16, 2:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Mills62 min
Jun 16, 2:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDavis, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren, Wapello86 min
Jun 16, 3:07 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCHarrison, Monona, Shelby7 hr
Jun 16, 3:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 18 more2 hr
Jun 16, 3:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Des Moines and 13 more5 hr
Jun 16, 5:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd and 3 more35 min
Jun 16, 5:37 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAudubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler and 38 more6 hr
Jun 16, 5:46 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more6 hr
Jun 16, 2:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Brown, Buffalo and 30 more118 min
Jun 16, 3:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Buffalo, Dawson, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas and 7 more115 min
Jun 16, 4:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBox Butte, Cherry, Dawes, Sheridan, Sioux117 min
Jun 16, 4:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCuming, Thurston58 min
Jun 16, 6:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGarfield, Wheeler55 min
Jun 16, 7:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeadle, Brown, Buffalo, Clark, Codington, Day and 18 more57 min
Jun 16, 12:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBon Homme, Brookings, Clay, Davison, Douglas, Hanson and 12 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.