Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

June 16, 20149 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2014, 5:10 PM CDT for 9 counties in Iowa; 6 counties in Minnesota; 11 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 35 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2014, 5:10 PM CDT (22:10 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2014, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 95%

All 26 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Winona County, MN, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 306Jun 16, 5:50 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 151 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -111 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1163 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

971 
ACUS11 KWNS 162210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162210 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA / SWRN WI / SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 162210Z - 162245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING AND WILL LIKELY PROMPT A
WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AS A WARM
FRONT AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCE NWD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT
THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  AN INITIAL
THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NERN IA AND SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42619239 43389323 44199287 44379170 44229027 43598973
            42868982 42639008 42619239

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 7:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Fremont, Harrison, Lyon, Mills, Monona, Plymouth and 4 more	9 hr
Jun 16, 10:19 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista and 64 more	116 min
Jun 16, 12:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Audubon, Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee and 33 more	8 hr
Jun 16, 2:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fremont, Mills	62 min
Jun 16, 2:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Davis, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren, Wapello	86 min
Jun 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Harrison, Monona, Shelby	7 hr
Jun 16, 3:11 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 18 more	2 hr
Jun 16, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Des Moines and 13 more	5 hr
Jun 16, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler and 38 more	6 hr
Jun 16, 5:46 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Allamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Floyd, Howard and 2 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.