Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1018

June 16, 201414 counties in Kansas; 13 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2014, 3:50 PM CDT for 14 counties in Kansas; 13 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2014, 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2014, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 27 counties

Barton County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Graham County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Smith County, KS, Trego County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hall County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2904 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 545 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 276 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 479 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 5.8
Supercell composite: 31.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

557 
ACUS11 KWNS 162051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162050 
NEZ000-KSZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SWRN NEB/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 162050Z - 162245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS APPARENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA -- PENDING POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND WRN KS
ATTM.  WHILE THE AIRMASS HAS REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS YIELDED A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH 3500 TO 4500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE INDICATED.

WHILE FORCING/CONVERGENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WHILE
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST NO DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
KS/NEB BORDER...ADDITIONAL HEATING/EWD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCAL BREACHES OF THE CAP YIELDING ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE...AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH OBSERVED SHEAR
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS -- WOULD SUPPORT RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO.
 WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS
AREA -- WITH AN EYE TOWARD POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41149870 40899827 39819804 38879829 38149855 38119969
            38539977 39410025 40260072 41150074 41149870

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 11:04 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt and 1 more	86 min
Jun 16, 2:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Brown, Buffalo and 30 more	118 min
Jun 16, 7:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Burt, Butler, Cass and 44 more	9 hr
Jun 16, 10:19 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burt, Cass, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming, Dakota and 21 more	116 min
Jun 16, 2:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown and 50 more	62 min
Jun 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Antelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo and 35 more	7 hr
Jun 16, 4:03 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Box Butte, Cherry, Dawes, Sheridan, Sioux	117 min
Jun 16, 4:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cuming, Thurston	58 min
Jun 16, 6:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Garfield, Wheeler	55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.