Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE FOR AUGUST ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO OHIO IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS
A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LEAD TO STRONGER
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. SEMI ORGANIZED COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HAVE EVEN LEAD TO LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS.  WHILE
TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY...A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PSEUDO WEDGE BUILDS INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  THIS WEDGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A WET WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS ORGANIZED
AS THEY WERE TODAY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.

ARG

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS IS STILL A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS...PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCES...AND WEDGING STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT FOR PRECIP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD HELP A REINFORCE A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
MONDAY.

OLD WEDGE FRONT STILL STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL NEAR SOUTH GA BY FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA/01

&&

18Z UPDATE...
TWO MAIN CONCERNS EXIST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FIRST THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AM AND PM.  TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE AM INTO EARLY PM
ARE THE BEST TIMES.  THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AM.  THESE LOOK MORE LIKELY AS MOST OF THE SITES
HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAIN TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR...WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING.  HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  89  71  86 /  60  80  40  60
ATLANTA         72  87  72  87 /  60  80  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  68  81 /  60  80  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  71  88 /  60  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        74  91  74  90 /  40  70  60  60
GAINESVILLE     69  85  71  81 /  60  80  70  60
MACON           72  92  72  89 /  50  80  40  60
ROME            70  88  72  88 /  60  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  69  89  72  88 /  50  80  60  60
VIDALIA         74  93  74  92 /  60  80  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
442 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ086-113-082130-
442 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TOOMBS AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER VIDALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TOOMBS AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SOUTH THOMPSON...VIDALIA...CENTER...SANTA
CLAUS...LYONS...PONDEROSA AND OHOOPEE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 8237 3220 8245 3221 8244 3225 8244
      3239 8226 3234 8223 3228 8222 3217 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 236DEG 9KT 3219 8237

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKHEAD                33.57N  83.36W
08/08/2014                   MORGAN             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MORGAN COUNTY RELAYED A REPORT OF 3 TO 4 TREES DOWN IN
            THE BUCKHEAD AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400772

AGIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
446 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEVILLE           33.96N  83.99W
08/08/2014                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF POWERLINES DOWN AT ARCHER HIGH SCHOOL AND
            RAFINGTON DRIVE AT SIMONTON ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400773

KOVACIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SNELLVILLE              33.86N  84.02W
08/08/2014                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN AT MILLBROOK DRIVE AND OAK ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400774

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ075-076-082130-
448 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EDGEHILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRANGE...MITCHELL...EDGEHILL...
GIBSON...AVERA...STELLAVILLE...MATTHEWS...WRENS...STAPLETON AND
BASTONVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8224 3306 8262 3323 8274 3333 8257
      3333 8255 3327 8243 3332 8239 3332 8234
      3327 8226 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 238DEG 8KT 3318 8264