Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1121 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

.UPDATE...
EVER PERSISTENT OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHAT WAS A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAS MERGED INTO JUST ONE OR TWO MAIN ONES PUSHING
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE SOME REMNANT
ACTIVITY IS ALONG A WAVE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IN NW GA. HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDING TO THESE TWO
INFLUENCING FEATURES BUT DROP OFF ACTIVITY LARGELY AFTER 2-4 AM.

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY
IN THE ATLANTA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO THE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EVENING STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW BUT TRENDS IN OBS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR ANYTHING DENSER IN COVERAGE. NOT A STRONG INVERSION
PEGGED IN BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT LOWER
IN AREAS WITH PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE AND WINDS SHOULD STAY PRETTY
LIGHT. SOME LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MAY HELP
TO COUNTER RADIATIVE PROCESSES THOUGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA AND
ANOTHER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE ATL AREA RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE. THERE IS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH GA WITH A WEAKER
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL GA. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO ACTING AS A CATALYST FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO POP UP. CURRENTLY THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS APPROACHING THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BERING INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE AREA
FRI AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN SOME OF THE OUTLIER MODELS
SUGGESTING WEDGE EVENT LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK...AND
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...FUTURE FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE
AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/

COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE
LOWS...PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES...AND POSSIBLE WEDGING. IN A
NUTSHELL...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN GA FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...HELPING PULL THE OLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE HELPS WITH LIFT
AND FOCUSES PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN
ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. IF THIS PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION...THEN THE OFFSHORE LOW CENTER WILL HELP CREATE AND
REINFORCE ANY WEDGING THAT TEMPORARILY DEVELOPS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE
WEDGE IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS SHOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL BE CLOSE TO 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL AND BL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT. SO...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD BUT MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OR REMNANT SFC MOISTURE
THEREAFTER. CIG DECK SHOULD MAINLY BE SCT TO BKN AT 5-7 KFT WITH
SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO BKN 4-5 KFT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING TSRA AND SHRA WITH VRB GUSTS MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN SITES THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD DIMINISH NEAR 02Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER VSBY FOG IN EARLY MORNING FOR NORTHERN
SITES DUE TO ALL THE STORM ACTIVITY SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 OF -TSRA FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF NE
OR E OVERNIGHT THEN SWING SE TO SW MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE A POSSIBLE
SE SHIFT AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  93  71  89 /  50  50  60  60
ATLANTA         70  90  72  88 /  70  40  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     65  82  67  81 /  30  60  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  70  88 /  50  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        73  95  74  92 /  30  40  40  50
GAINESVILLE     71  88  70  85 /  60  60  60  70
MACON           72  93  73  91 /  30  40  40  50
ROME            69  91  70  89 /  70  60  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  70  91  71  89 /  80  40  40  60
VIDALIA         73  95  74  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA/31
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081545-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1139 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ019-030-080230-
923 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN POLK AND FLOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 918 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ETNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS POLK AND
FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE ETNA...CAVE SPRING AND COOSA.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8545 3428 8539 3430 8538 3433 8536
      3415 8516 3398 8541 3425 8546 3427 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 234DEG 12KT 3405 8546

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
933 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANT PARK-ZOO ATLANTA  33.74N  84.37W
08/07/2014                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400762

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
959 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ048-056>058-080230-
959 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN SPALDING...
NEWTON...BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 949 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 40 MPH WINDS NEAR LOCUST GROVE...
MCDONOUGH...AND BLACKSVILLE...DRIFTING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION
TO WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SPALDING...NEWTON...BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WALKER
MILL...TOWALAGA...BLACKSVILLE...MCDONOUGH...LUELLA...LOCUST GROVE...
MCKIBBEN...JENKINSBURG...STARK...WORTHVILLE...FINCHERVILLE...
JACKSON...ROCKY PLAINS...STEWART AND OLA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8414 3350 8378 3344 8381 3344 8382
      3341 8385 3340 8383 3337 8386 3334 8386
      3333 8385 3328 8387 3327 8413 3330 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 261DEG 5KT 3343 8409

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ053-067-080245-
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN MERIWETHER AND
COWETA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1003 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HARALSON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
MERIWETHER AND COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ROCKY MOUNT...WOOSTER...ALVATON...
HARALSON AND SENOIA.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8474 3334 8455 3333 8453 3325 8450
      3325 8451 3318 8450 3315 8451 3314 8452
      3311 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 255DEG 5KT 3322 8460

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1107 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ056-057-080345-
1107 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
SPALDING AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1102 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SPALDING AND
HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE SUNNY SIDE...ATLANTA MOTOR
SPEEDWAY...HAMPTON...TOWALAGA...LUELLA...FLIPPEN...BLACKSVILLE...MCDO
NOUGH...LOCUST GROVE AND OLA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8435 3343 8430 3348 8429 3354 8405
      3350 8403 3348 8395 3346 8394 3344 8393
      3341 8398 3338 8398 3336 8401 3336 8404
      3331 8406 3329 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 260DEG 12KT 3339 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1144 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ056>058-070-071-080430-
1144 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...MONROE...LAMAR...BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM
EDT...

AT 1139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LIBERTY HILL...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SPALDING...MONROE...LAMAR...BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIBERTY HILL...
CHAPPEL MILL...ORCHARD HILL...WALKER MILL...MCKIBBEN...TOWALAGA...
LUELLA...JENKINSBURG...LOCUST GROVE...WORTHVILLE...FINCHERVILLE...
BLACKSVILLE...OLA AND MCDONOUGH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8417 3351 8404 3350 8403 3350 8400
      3345 8393 3341 8390 3312 8407 3320 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 201DEG 14KT 3320 8415