Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE FOR AUGUST ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO OHIO IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS
A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LEAD TO STRONGER
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. SEMI ORGANIZED COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HAVE EVEN LEAD TO LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS.  WHILE
TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY...A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PSEUDO WEDGE BUILDS INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  THIS WEDGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A WET WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS ORGANIZED
AS THEY WERE TODAY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.

ARG

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS IS STILL A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS...PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCES...AND WEDGING STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT FOR PRECIP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD HELP A REINFORCE A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
MONDAY.

OLD WEDGE FRONT STILL STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL NEAR SOUTH GA BY FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA/01

&&

18Z UPDATE...
TWO MAIN CONCERNS EXIST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FIRST THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AM AND PM.  TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE AM INTO EARLY PM
ARE THE BEST TIMES.  THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AM.  THESE LOOK MORE LIKELY AS MOST OF THE SITES
HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAIN TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR...WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING.  HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  89  71  86 /  60  80  40  60
ATLANTA         72  87  72  87 /  60  80  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  68  81 /  60  80  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  71  88 /  60  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        74  91  74  90 /  40  70  60  60
GAINESVILLE     69  85  71  81 /  60  80  70  60
MACON           72  92  72  89 /  50  80  40  60
ROME            70  88  72  88 /  60  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  69  89  72  88 /  50  80  60  60
VIDALIA         74  93  74  92 /  60  80  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ030-041-042-082315-
630 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 35 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
POLK...CARROLL AND HARALSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TALLAPOOSA TO 25
MILES WEST OF BOWDON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS POLK...CARROLL AND HARALSON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TALLAPOOSA...FELTON...
WACO...ANTIOCH...BOWDON JUNCTION...BREMEN...BUCHANAN...JOHN TANNER
STATE PARK...BOWDON...EUBANK LAKE AND MOUNT ZION. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 8507 3365 8505 3350 8529 3350 8531
      3393 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 274DEG 17KT 3384 8541 3368 8536
          3354 8567

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION POINT             33.61N  83.07W
08/08/2014                   GREENE             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF 1 TREE DOWN ON SWORDS ROAD. 2 REPORTED POWER
            SURGES... 1 AT 911 CALL CENTER AND 1 ON PINFIELD ROAD.
            SEVERAL ACCIDENTS WERE ALSO REPORTED IN THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400779

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
651 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ083-084-096-097-082345-
651 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TWIGGS...LAURENS...WILKINSON AND BLECKLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CARY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TWIGGS...
LAURENS...WILKINSON AND BLECKLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE ROYAL...CARY...DISTRICT
PATH...GOLDSBORO...JEFFERSONVILLE...ALLENTOWN...DANVILLE...
MONTROSE...DUDLEY...CHAPPELLS MILL AND NICKLESVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8309 3249 8299 3244 8338 3263 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 242DEG 13KT 3256 8332

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ074>076-090000-
657 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WASHINGTON...GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TENNILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS
WASHINGTON...GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE TENNILLE...SANDERSVILLE...
RIDDLEVILLE...GRANGE...DOWNS...DAVISBORO AND EDGEHILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8264 3297 8246 3284 8287 3298 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 245DEG 10KT 3294 8283

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
707 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ030-031-041>043-052-082345-
707 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 35 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
POLK...PAULDING...CARROLL...DOUGLAS...HARALSON AND HEARD COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 704 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM VAN WERT TO 15 MILES WEST OF BLACKJACK
MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING...CARROLL...DOUGLAS...HARALSON AND HEARD COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8524 3405 8512 3402 8475 3366 8483
      3331 8521 3332 8528 3366 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 280DEG 16KT 3399 8502 3371 8512
          3344 8552

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ001-002-090015-
730 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WALKER AND DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 728 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES WEST OF COLE CITY TO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF STEPHENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WALKER AND
DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE COLE CITY...STEPHENSVILLE...TRENTON...NEW
ENGLAND...MORGANVILLE...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE
PARK...HOOKER...WILDWOOD...COOPER HEIGHTS...CHICKAMAUGA...FAIRVIEW...
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY AND LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8529 3496 8528 3474 8530 3477 8557
      3495 8561 3498 8561 3499 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 262DEG 20KT 3500 8566 3491 8564
          3482 8567