Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN NW GA AS MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRENDING AND IS PRIMARILY OUTFLOW
DRIVEN. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL
HAIL OR 40 MPH WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA AND
ANOTHER AREA ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE ATL AREA RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE. THERE IS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH GA WITH A WEAKER
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL GA. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO ACTING AS A CATALYST FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO POP UP. CURRENTLY THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS APPROACHING THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BERING INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE AREA
FRI AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP. INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE
ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH GA. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN SOME OF THE OUTLIER MODELS
SUGGESTING WEDGE EVENT LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY WEEK...AND
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...FUTURE FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST GA
MOUNTAINS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE
AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 329 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014/

COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE
LOWS...PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES...AND POSSIBLE WEDGING. IN A
NUTSHELL...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN GA FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...HELPING PULL THE OLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE HELPS WITH LIFT
AND FOCUSES PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. SINCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN
ROUGHLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. IF THIS PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION...THEN THE OFFSHORE LOW CENTER WILL HELP CREATE AND
REINFORCE ANY WEDGING THAT TEMPORARILY DEVELOPS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE DECREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE
WEDGE IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS SHOULD BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...PWATS WILL BE CLOSE TO 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL AND BL WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT. SO...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD BUT MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. CIG DECK SHOULD MAINLY BE SCT
TO BKN AT 5-7 KFT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT THEN
BACK TO BKN 4-5 KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING TSRA AND SHRA WITH
VRB GUSTS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN SITES THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD
DIMINISH NEAR 02Z. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOWER VSBY FOG IN EARLY
MORNING FOR NORTHERN SITES DUE TO ALL THE STORM ACTIVITY SO WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. STORM CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 OF -TSRA FOR NOW. WINDS LOOK TO BE MAINLY
LIGHT OUT OF NE OR E OVERNIGHT THEN SWING SE TO SW MIDDAY FRIDAY
BEFORE A POSSIBLE SE SHIFT AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  93  71  89 /  30  50  60  60
ATLANTA         73  90  72  88 /  40  40  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     65  82  67  81 /  30  60  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    69  91  70  88 /  40  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        73  95  74  92 /  20  40  40  50
GAINESVILLE     71  88  70  85 /  40  60  60  70
MACON           72  93  73  91 /  20  40  40  50
ROME            69  91  70  89 /  40  60  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  70  91  71  89 /  40  40  40  60
VIDALIA         73  95  74  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/31
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081545-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1139 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONT OVER FAR NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ033-044-045-080015-
725 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN DEKALB AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 720 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRANT PARK-ZOO ATLANTA...MOVEMENT WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DEKALB AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUCKHEAD...BANKHEAD...CASCADE HEIGHTS...
VIRGINIA HIGHLAND...WEST END...SWEET AUBURN...ATLANTIC STATION...
LAKEWOOD PARK...CHASTAIN MEMORIAL PARK...PIEDMONT PARK...GRANT
PARK-ZOO ATLANTA...TURNER FIELD...MIDTOWN...HAPEVILLE AND EAST POINT.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8425 3366 8424 3366 8448 3391 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 264DEG 8KT 3374 8435

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ053-067-080015-
731 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MERIWETHER AND COWETA COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LUTHERSVILLE...MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MERIWETHER AND COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SAINT MARKS...LUTHERSVILLE...LONE
OAK...MORELAND...ROCKY MOUNT...WOOSTER...TURIN...ALVATON AND
HARALSON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3333 8456 3310 8454 3311 8484 3334 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 270DEG 6KT 3323 8468

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
734 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ055-057-080015-
734 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM REX TO FLIPPEN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8437 3364 8424 3363 8424 3364 8422
      3362 8420 3350 8409 3337 8407 3338 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 276DEG 5KT 3358 8425 3353 8423
          3345 8419

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ033-034-045-080015-
752 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN DEKALB...GWINNETT
AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 748 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALPHARETTA TO SANDY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS DEKALB...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SANDY SPRINGS...
ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...DUNWOODY...PLEASANT HILL...SUWANEE...
NORCROSS...MECHANICSVILLE...DULUTH...BERKELEY LAKE...DORAVILLE AND
JOHNS CREEK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8397 3395 8407 3388 8416 3391 8443
      3393 8443 3398 8437 3401 8440 3404 8440
      3409 8433 3409 8420 3407 8418 3405 8410
      3407 8412 3410 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 281DEG 8KT 3407 8429 3399 8433
          3393 8438

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ022-033-034-045-080045-
816 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN DEKALB...
FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHAMBLEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS DEKALB...
FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE LA VISTA...BROOKHAVEN...
SCOTTDALE...DRUID HILLS...DORAVILLE...CHAMBLEE...DUNWOODY...VIRGINIA
HIGHLAND...SANDY SPRINGS...CLARKSTON...MECHANICSVILLE...TUCKER...
NORCROSS...PLEASANT HILL AND SNELLVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 8416 3384 8398 3377 8437 3395 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 262DEG 11KT 3388 8427

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

GAZ046-048-057-080100-
820 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN ROCKDALE...NEWTON
AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FLIPPEN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
ROCKDALE...NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EAGLES
LANDING...STOCKBRIDGE...FLIPPEN...BLACKSVILLE...MCDONOUGH...OAK
HILL...RICHARDSON PARK...MAGNET...OLA AND KELLEYTOWN. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8404 3354 8395 3342 8396 3339 8425
      3354 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 254DEG 7KT 3349 8420