Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1113 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT NE GA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WPC ISSUED A MPD DETAILING
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THAT AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST
OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FURTHER.  THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS N GA MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE
PRECIP. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE A COMPLICATED...AND RATHER WET...FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE
SHORT TERM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...A WEAK HYBRID DAMMING EVENT
SETS UP FOR OVER THE WEEKEND MAINLY FOR THE CAROLINAS /NOT QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REALLY MAKE IT INTO GEORGIA AT LEAST FOR NOW/.
SURFACE LOW WORKS ITS WAY EAST INTO TENNESSEE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN AROUND THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGE AS A WEDGE FRONT.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM BUT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ORIGINATE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...TRAVELING WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO AND AROUND THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...MAXIMIZING EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. IMPRESSIVE PW VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH AN INITIAL MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER VALUES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER PW AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES...WELL OVER THE 75TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AND APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
MODERATE CAPE VALUES OVERSPREAD THE AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS...WITH
LOWEST VALUES NATURALLY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE
DAMMING...BUT THE DAMMING IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A GOOD
SURFACE INVERSION PRESENT SO HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF THUNDER
EVERYWHERE...WITH LOWER THUNDER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. BUT WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE PLUS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SEE NO REASON
TO NOT CONTINUE HIGH POPS. KEPT LIKELY POPS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE...THOUGH AS A NOTE HI-RES MODELS WANT
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH LIKELIES JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY BUT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE BY 2-5 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY A LITTLE TRICKY BECAUSE THEY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS IF THAT
DAMMING MANAGES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE STATE MORE.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLICATED FORECAST STILL AN ISSUE FOR THE LONG TERM...MULTIPLE
FRONTS AND PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES AND WEDGING ON MONDAY STILL
POSSIBLE. MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
TO TWEAK POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT FOR PRECIP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWFA.

THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD HELP A REINFORCE A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
MONDAY.

OLD WEDGE FRONT STILL STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWFA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL NEAR SOUTH GA BY FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. HAVE ADJUSTED
FORMER PROB30 TO TEMPO TSRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST TIMING
BETWEEN 22-00Z TONIGHT. VCSH THEREAFTER AND INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA
AFTER 15Z SATURDAY FOR ATL. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
TODAY...COULD SEE MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LOW CIGS. HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS AT AHN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS. WINDS GENERALLY SE TO START THE PERIOD...SW
AT 18Z..BACK TO SE AT 00Z...AND THEN BACK TO SW FOR GOOD AT SOME
POINT OVERNIGHT. ALL BUT ATL WILL BE CALM OR LGT/VRB OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MEDIUM ON IMPACTS TO
ATL AND TIMING.
MEDIUM-LOW ON CIGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  71  87  72 /  60  60  60  40
ATLANTA         91  73  87  73 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     74  67  80  67 /  90  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    89  70  87  73 /  70  60  60  50
COLUMBUS        95  75  91  75 /  50  40  60  40
GAINESVILLE     89  71  83  71 /  80  60  70  50
MACON           95  72  91  74 /  60  50  60  40
ROME            89  71  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  91  70  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         96  74  92  74 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
227 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ057-081900-
227 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN HENRY COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS HENRY COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LUELLA...LOCUST GROVE...BLACKSVILLE...MCDONOUGH...OLA AND
KELLEYTOWN.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 75.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8409 3354 8405 3350 8403 3349 8398
      3345 8392 3341 8398 3338 8398 3336 8404
      3330 8408 3330 8411 3332 8415 3334 8415
      3334 8424 3335 8425 3336 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 222DEG 10KT 3335 8414

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
239 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ057-081915-
239 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN HENRY COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAGLES LANDING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS HENRY COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
EAGLES LANDING...FLIPPEN...MCDONOUGH...STOCKBRIDGE...HIDDEN VALLEY
PARK AND KELLEYTOWN.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 75.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 8428 3355 8429 3355 8426 3359 8424
      3363 8427 3365 8425 3363 8424 3365 8422
      3365 8419 3357 8414 3354 8405 3351 8404
      3338 8424 3343 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 227DEG 9KT 3351 8424

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ073-084-081915-
251 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WILKINSON AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER IVEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS WILKINSON AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE IVEY...GORDON...COOPERS...ALLENWOOD...HARDWICK...
SCOTTSBORO...PANCRAS  AND MILLEDGEVILLE.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8307 3294 8308 3282 8334 3290 8341
      3293 8336 3302 8339 3317 8319 3300 8305
      3299 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 234DEG 7KT 3295 8331

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE POSTELL            32.93N  83.50W
08/08/2014                   JONES              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 49

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400764

JLF

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