Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE FOR AUGUST ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING
INTO OHIO IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS
A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 20 TO 25 KTS HAS LEAD TO STRONGER
THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. SEMI ORGANIZED COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HAVE EVEN LEAD TO LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS.  WHILE
TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY...A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE EVENING.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AS A PSEUDO WEDGE BUILDS INTO
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  THIS WEDGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A WET WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING.
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE AS ORGANIZED
AS THEY WERE TODAY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.

ARG

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS IS STILL A COMPLICATED
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS...PASSING UPPER
DISTURBANCES...AND WEDGING STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY. OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DIP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT FOR PRECIP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY...WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD HELP A REINFORCE A WEAK WEDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GA
MONDAY.

OLD WEDGE FRONT STILL STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY...BUT
SHOULD START TO BECOME DIFFUSE AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE CWA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL NEAR SOUTH GA BY FRIDAY.

NLISTEMAA/01

&&

18Z UPDATE...
TWO MAIN CONCERNS EXIST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FIRST THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AM AND PM.  TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE AM INTO EARLY PM
ARE THE BEST TIMES.  THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AM.  THESE LOOK MORE LIKELY AS MOST OF THE SITES
HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAIN TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON IFR...WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING.  HIGH ON
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  89  71  86 /  60  80  40  60
ATLANTA         72  87  72  87 /  60  80  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     65  80  68  81 /  60  80  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  87  71  88 /  60  70  60  60
COLUMBUS        74  91  74  90 /  40  70  60  60
GAINESVILLE     69  85  71  81 /  60  80  70  60
MACON           72  92  72  89 /  50  80  40  60
ROME            70  88  72  88 /  60  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  69  89  72  88 /  50  80  60  60
VIDALIA         74  93  74  92 /  60  80  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
612 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND
COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIDGEWOOD               33.62N  84.35W
08/08/2014                   CLAYTON            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN ALONG PINEDALE DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400767

JLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ071-081945-
319 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BERNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS MONROE COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
PLANT SCHERER...BLOUNT...FORSYTH...JULIETTE AND BERNER.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 8390 3313 8405 3320 8397 3320 8386
      3318 8383 3315 8381 3313 8382 3312 8380
      3308 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 227DEG 9KT 3313 8389

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
322 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ060-081945-
322 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN PUTNAM COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WILLARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
STANFORDVILLE...WILLARD...WARFIELD...CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT
STATION...ROCK EAGLE 4-H CENTER AND EATONTON.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 8349 3325 8354 3338 8354 3345 8347
      3347 8339 3347 8336 3329 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 224DEG 4KT 3331 8350

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

GAZ033-044-045-055-082000-
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN DEKALB...CLAYTON
AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RIVERDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEKALB...CLAYTON AND FULTON COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND RIVERDALE...COLLEGE PARK...HARTSFIELD-JACKSON
AIRPORT...HAPEVILLE...EAST POINT...MORROW...LAKE CITY...FOREST
PARK...FORT GILLEM...CONLEY AND CEDAR GROVE.

DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8454 3370 8441 3367 8425 3352 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 231DEG 12KT 3360 8442

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATLANTA                 33.75N  84.39W
08/08/2014                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS FULTON COUNTY - BLUEFIELD
            ROAD SW AND WYLAND DR SW... DONALD LEE HOLLOWELL PKWY...
            W WESLEY ROAD NW AND NORTHSIDE DR NW... PACES FERRY ROAD
            NW... MOUNT GILEAD ROAD SW AND CAMPBELLTON ROAD SW...
            LUCILE AVE SW AND LAWTON ST SW... WILDWOOD ROAD... AND
            WILLARD AVE SW.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400768

JLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N PLUNKET TOWN        33.66N  84.39W
08/08/2014                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF COLLAPSE ALONG EMPIRE BLVD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1400769

JLF