Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
255 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD
AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TORNADO
WATCH 332 WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER CENTRAL SD WITH MODELS SHOWING
DESTABILIZATION FURTHER EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
EASTERN CWA REMAINS CAPPED BUT EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST. HI RES MODELS
SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO A SOLUTION...WITH CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OVER CENTRAL SD DEPICTED DECENTLY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SD...THEN BY 00Z OR SO
THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE JAMES VALLEY. MAY HAVE TO CUT
BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA AS IT APPEARS THEY WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SVR PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR DOES
SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT OVER EASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY...LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AS SFC
TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AFFECT THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS...BUT WITHIN BEST REGION OF ASCENT WITHIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/FRONT THEN MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. REALLY CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY TIME PERIOD THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY POP UP...THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING KPIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-191000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /349 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 S WATAUGA            45.71N 101.54W
06/18/2014                   CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            MAN MADE DAM WASHED OUT. FLASH FLOODING AT RESIDENCE
            WITH YARD FLOODED AND RUNNING WATER POURING INTO
            BASEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400438

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             15 S WATAUGA            45.71N 101.54W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL BUT A FEW UP TO QUARTER SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400439

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             WALKER                  45.91N 101.09W
06/18/2014  M0.70 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN AND 20 TO 30 MPH WIND

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400440

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NW SHAMBO RANCH      45.64N 101.98W
06/18/2014  E56 MPH          CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            56 PMH WIND DAVIS WEATHER. 2.60 INCHES OF RAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400441

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
438 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             6 W KLEIN RANCH         45.67N 101.46W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

            SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL BUT MOSTLY SMALLER. 1.90 RAIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400442

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
502 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             7 SW ARTAS              45.82N  99.91W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400443

FOWLE