Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON POPS TONIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN SD AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL SD IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
VERY FAR INTO THIS CWA TONIGHT. INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE ALMOST
STATIONARY. STILL ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH SO LEFT POPS ALONE BEYOND 15Z.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA WERE SLOW TO BREAK OUT WITH SEVERAL AREAS
STILL CLOUDY ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE CAPPING
INVERSION TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY ALONG WITH A SLOW INSTABILITY
BUILDUP. THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION OUT IN WESTERN SD TO MAKE
ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST INTO OUR WESTERN CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND
BECOME ELEVATED. WITH THE CAPPING EAST ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT
WELL SOUTH TONIGHT...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING FAR
EAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE CWA WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST MAKES ITS WAY
SLOWLY EAST INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE INTERESTING IF WE CAN RECEIVE MORE SURFACE
HEATING AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD. PWATS
..INSTABILITY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING
SHOULD ALL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW...COULD HAVE SOME TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE COULD HAVE SOME LOCAL
FLOODING. OTHERWISE.. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LOW THATS CURRENTLY ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHWEST CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND BY FRIDAY...WILL STILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRETTY QUESTIONABLE SETUP HERE THOUGH SO
WILL HAVE LOW POPS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
SATURDAY TO BE RATHER QUIET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD/WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES INTERMITTENTLY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD KATY RIGHT NOW...AND MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO KATY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL MONITOR THAT. ALSO...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MARCHING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL...AND MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO KMBG /APPX
1030Z/ AND KPIR /APPX 0930Z/ EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
THAT.

AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF STORMS NEAR THE TAF SITES. LINGERING STRATUS MAY
IMPACT DEVELOPMENT THOUGH ALL OTHER PARAMETERS INDICATE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. TIMING IS IN QUESTION SIMPLY DUE TO THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS POINT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL..HEAVY RAIN..AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
443 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-180945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
443 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 /343 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.
TODAY...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...CENTERING OVER EAST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STORMS ARE LIKELY...AND SOME MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAIL...WIND AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SERR