Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...WITH EARLIER
SEVERE STORM OVER SOUTHERN DEWEY COUNTY LONG GONE. INVERTED SFC
TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER UNR CWA.
OVERALL...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. DID DELAY ONSET
OF PRECIP A BIT ACROSS THE EAST AS MODELS ARE TRYING TO SLOW DOWN
PROGRESSION OF SFC TROUGH. AFTER LOOKING AT ALL HI-RES
MODELS...THERE SEEMS TO BE A CONSENSUS THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD. IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WONT RAMP
UP ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS EVENING. SVR PARAMETERS STILL
LOOK VERY GOOD AND EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO KEEP THIS THING GOING. LIMITED OBS...SO NO REPORTS OF
SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL AT THE TIME OF THE DISCUSSION. IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW /DISTINCTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
IS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A PRETTY DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND HEIGHTS BEING TO FALL. IN
FACT...INITIALLY 700 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +10 TO +14 C RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS THAT
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED
THROUGH...TIED CLOSELY TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS.
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE AT ABOUT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...SO DISCRETE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE...MAYBE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STORMS. STORMS WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST...INTERACTING WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AS WELL AS 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR. OVERALL...HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND LIFT NORTHEAST. IF STORMS
CAN FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT...OR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
STORMS...EVEN IF SURFACE HEATING IS INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. APPROPRIATE SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE TRANSPORTING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION...AND BEYOND SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST CWA...CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT...AND A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THIS GO ROUND.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE
ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH. THE
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD...MODEST LLM/INSTABILITY RETURNS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOW UP AGAIN /ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY/.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HEADING OFFICIALLY INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING KPIR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-191000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /349 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             10 SSW RIDGEVIEW        44.94N 100.85W
06/18/2014  M1.00 INCH       DEWEY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400433

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     HAIL             3 ENE SULLY BUTTES      44.72N 100.44W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       SULLY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400434

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     HAIL             9 NW LEBANON            45.15N  99.91W
06/18/2014  E0.88 INCH       POTTER             SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400435

CONNELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
124 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

SDZ015-016-181900-
DEWEY-POTTER-
1224 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN DEWEY
AND WESTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MDT/200 PM CDT/...

AT 1223 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SWIFTBIRD...OR 30 MILES
WEST OF GETTYSBURG...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE ADVISED
COUNTIES..

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

TDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
136 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

SDZ015-181900-
DEWEY-
1236 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN DEWEY
COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1233 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE HORSE...OR 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAGLE
BUTTE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE GLENCROSS.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
150 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW SHAMBO RANCH       45.55N 101.87W
06/18/2014  M56 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MEASURED FROM THE ATHBOY CWOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400436

FOWLE