Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR TO KEEP THIS THING GOING. LIMITED OBS...SO NO REPORTS OF
SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL AT THE TIME OF THE DISCUSSION. IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW /DISTINCTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
IS NOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A PRETTY DECENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND HEIGHTS BEING TO FALL. IN
FACT...INITIALLY 700 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +10 TO +14 C RANGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THIS...IT APPEARS THAT
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE INVERTED
THROUGH...TIED CLOSELY TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS.
THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE AT ABOUT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...SO DISCRETE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE...MAYBE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STORMS. STORMS WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST...INTERACTING WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AS WELL AS 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR. OVERALL...HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND LIFT NORTHEAST. IF STORMS
CAN FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT...OR NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD SET UP FOR SEVERE
STORMS...EVEN IF SURFACE HEATING IS INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. APPROPRIATE SEVERE WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE TRANSPORTING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION...AND BEYOND SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST CWA...CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR OUT...AND A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THIS GO ROUND.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE
ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH. THE
FRONT END OF THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE DRY. HOWEVER...EVENTUALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD...MODEST LLM/INSTABILITY RETURNS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOW UP AGAIN /ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY/.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RUNNING GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...HEADING OFFICIALLY INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LINE OF STORMS IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING...BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY INFLUENCING TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY TO THE KABR TAF
SITE...BUT IF THEY DO THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED AT KABR AROUND 14Z.
ONLY KEPT A VICINITY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL BE MONITORED.

MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT A
ROUGH GUESS WOULD BE KPIR/KMBG AROUND 19Z-21Z...KABR BETWEEN 22Z-
00Z...AND KATY BY 00Z-02Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN..AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-191000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
449 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 /349 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THIS MORNING...A LINE OF STORMS IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 AM     TSTM WND GST     TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
06/18/2014  E50 MPH          DEWEY              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN TIMBER LAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400429

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
836 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             22 SSE EAGLE BUTTE      44.71N 101.07W
06/18/2014  E1.00 INCH       STANLEY            SD   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING GROUND RANGING IN SIZE FROM PEAS TO
            QUARTERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400430

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
846 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     HAIL             5 WNW SULLY BUTTES      44.72N 100.58W
06/18/2014  E1.25 INCH       SULLY              SD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1400431

CONNELLY