Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 2011

November 17, 201362 counties in Indiana; 32 counties in Michigan; 10 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 17, 2013, 11:01 AM EST for 62 counties in Indiana; 32 counties in Michigan; 10 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2013, 11:01 AM EST (16:01 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2013, 1:00 PM EST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 104 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Bartholomew County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Decatur County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Noble County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Rush County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Allen County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2013-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2013-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 290 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
476 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
290 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
295 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

359 
ACUS11 KWNS 171601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171601 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-171800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...IND...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 171601Z - 171800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/WIND HAZARDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE
EXPECTED E OF WW 561.

DISCUSSION...RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS E-CNTRL IL
JUST NE OF MTO. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN
HAMPERED BY ABUNDANT STRATUS...LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD YIELD INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION. VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SUPERCELLS FORMING WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FARTHER WEST IN SERN WI AND NRN/WRN
IL. WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SPREAD RAPIDLY E/NEWD WITH
CORRESPONDING RISKS FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/WIND.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   44168638 44218520 43948421 43148375 40788406 39238535
            38968669 39108754 40128748 41748704 44168638

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 17, 3:06 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDaviess, Dubois, Gibson, Knox, Pike, Posey and 3 more84 min
Nov 17, 9:40 AM ESTTornado Watch PDSSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter7 hr
Nov 17, 11:17 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGibson, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick118 min
Nov 17, 11:20 AM ESTTornado Watch PDSSPCAdams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown and 65 more9 hr
Nov 17, 11:43 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCGibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick8 hr
Nov 17, 11:49 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLake, Newton86 min
Nov 17, 12:57 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Fountain, Jasper, Lake, Montgomery, Newton and 7 more93 min
Nov 17, 12:57 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPosey93 min
Nov 17, 2:13 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bartholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Brown and 59 more77 min
Nov 17, 2:34 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison, Perry, Washington56 min
Nov 17, 2:58 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson and 4 more6 hr
Nov 17, 3:43 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGibson, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick62 min
Nov 17, 3:51 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Brown, Clay and 34 more84 min
Nov 17, 4:46 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange and 7 more89 min
Nov 17, 12:32 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Crawford and 13 more118 min
Nov 17, 1:13 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Benzie, Charlevoix and 17 more6 hr
Nov 17, 3:05 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Ashland, Ashtabula, Athens, Carroll, Champaign and 55 more85 min
Nov 17, 4:25 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Ashland, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Brown and 63 more5 hr
Nov 17, 6:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Ashland, Athens, Auglaize, Belmont and 65 more54 min
Nov 17, 6:16 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGallia, Lawrence59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.