Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2013
Tornado Watch 564
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2013, 1:13 PM EST for 23 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 17, 2013, 1:13 PM EST (18:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 17, 2013, 6:52 PM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 23 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 10%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 5%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
5 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 3:15 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | APX | Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 17, 3:52 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Crawford, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Roscommon | 53 min |
| Nov 17, 4:04 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Gladwin, Ogemaw | 56 min |
| Nov 17, 4:56 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Iosco, Ogemaw | 64 min |
| Nov 17, 5:13 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, Oscoda | 62 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 473 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 191 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 244 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
358 WWUS20 KWNS 171807 SEL4 SPC WW 171807 MIZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-180100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE HURON LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 800 PM EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OSCODA MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 561...WW 562...WW 563... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050. ...MEAD
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 11:01 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 26 more | 119 min |
| Nov 17, 11:20 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun and 39 more | 9 hr |
| Nov 17, 12:32 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Crawford and 13 more | 118 min |
| Nov 17, 2:13 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 21 more | 77 min |
| Nov 17, 3:51 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Branch and 32 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2013Every tornado watch in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.