Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 2014

November 17, 201319 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 17, 2013, 12:32 PM EST for 19 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 17, 2013, 12:32 PM EST (17:32 UTC)
Expired: Nov 17, 2013, 2:30 PM EST
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 564Nov 17, 1:10 PM EST

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 473 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 244 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 17, 11:01 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 26 more	119 min
Nov 17, 11:20 AM EST	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun and 39 more	9 hr
Nov 17, 1:13 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Benzie, Charlevoix and 17 more	6 hr
Nov 17, 2:13 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 21 more	77 min
Nov 17, 3:51 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Barry, Bay, Branch and 32 more	84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2013 Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.