Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 2012

November 17, 20136 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 17, 2013, 10:17 AM CST for 6 states. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 17, 2013, 10:17 AM CST (16:17 UTC)
Expired
Nov 17, 2013, 12:15 PM CST
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 81 counties

Clay County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Obion County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2013-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 874 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2013-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 310 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
874 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
310 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
316 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
7.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

687 
ACUS11 KWNS 171617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171617 
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-171815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 171617Z - 171815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED S OF WW/S
561/562...WITH RISKS FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CELLULAR CONVECTION IS INCREASING S OF WW 561 ACROSS
S-CNTRL MO AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSOLATION OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND A BROADER STRATUS
DECK NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE HEATING THROUGH THE 70S WITHIN THE PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE TYPES AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38179138 38228977 38408727 38148678 37678680 37038696
            36338771 36008829 35868936 35919086 36079156 36309195
            36659206 38179138

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 11:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Clay, Cleburne, Fulton, Greene, Independence and 9 more61 min
Nov 17, 2:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene and 15 more84 min
Nov 17, 10:43 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more8 hr
Nov 17, 11:57 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph93 min
Nov 17, 2:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene62 min
Nov 17, 3:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraighead, Mississippi89 min
Nov 17, 7:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll and 55 more88 min
Nov 17, 8:40 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCAdams, Bond, Boone, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun and 77 more7 hr
Nov 17, 10:49 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Boone, Bureau, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign and 56 more86 min
Nov 17, 11:57 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, Coles, Cook, DeWitt, Douglas, DuPage and 11 more93 min
Nov 17, 1:05 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Hamilton, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and 4 more55 min
Nov 17, 1:13 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Edgar, Edwards, Jasper, Lawrence and 3 more77 min
Nov 17, 10:01 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Bartholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone and 56 more119 min
Nov 17, 10:20 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCAdams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown and 65 more9 hr
Nov 17, 1:34 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Floyd, Harrison, Perry, Washington56 min
Nov 17, 1:58 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson and 4 more6 hr
Nov 17, 2:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Brown, Clay and 34 more84 min
Nov 17, 3:25 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCGreenup, Lewis, Mason, Robertson5 hr
Nov 17, 5:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBracken, Campbell, Kenton, Mason54 min
Nov 17, 5:16 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Bath, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Casey and 40 more59 min
Nov 16, 7:53 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton and 16 more67 min
Nov 17, 4:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston, Humphreys and 5 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.