Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 660

October 12, 20127 counties in New Mexico; 31 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 12, 2012, 5:22 PM MDT for 7 counties in New Mexico; 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 12, 2012, 5:22 PM MDT (23:22 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2012, 1:00 AM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 38 counties

Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

22 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 5:36 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCastro, Hale, Swisher39 min
Oct 12, 5:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBFloyd, Hale38 min
Oct 12, 6:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQChaves40 min
Oct 12, 6:05 PM MDTTornado WarningLUBFloyd, Hale25 min
Oct 12, 6:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBSwisher23 min
Oct 12, 6:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBBriscoe, Floyd, Hale, Swisher50 min
Oct 12, 6:27 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Randall33 min
Oct 12, 6:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQChaves, De Baca, Roosevelt58 min
Oct 12, 6:50 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBSwisher55 min
Oct 12, 6:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQChaves32 min
Oct 12, 7:21 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hutchinson, Roberts39 min
Oct 12, 7:24 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFLea66 min
Oct 12, 7:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQChaves, Curry, Roosevelt35 min
Oct 12, 7:48 PM MDTTornado WarningMAFLea27 min
Oct 12, 8:24 PM MDTTornado WarningMAFLea36 min
Oct 12, 8:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFLea25 min
Oct 12, 9:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCochran, Yoakum29 min
Oct 12, 9:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCochran, Hockley, Terry, Yoakum27 min
Oct 12, 9:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCochran, Hockley, Terry, Yoakum31 min
Oct 12, 10:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQHarding, Quay47 min
Oct 12, 11:20 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQCurry, Quay55 min
Oct 13, 12:51 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQCurry, Quay39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-10-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1935 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-10-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 196 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1935 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-142 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

369 
WWUS20 KWNS 122325
SEL0  
SPC WW 122325
NMZ000-TXZ000-130700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       EASTERN NM NEW MEXICO
       MUCH OF WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO TO 25 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND MUCH OF WEST/NORTHWEST
TX. A SEASONALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY/MID EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...GUYER

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 2:19 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt86 min
Oct 12, 10:49 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcKinley, San Juan86 min
Oct 12, 12:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBernalillo, Los Alamos, Mora, Rio Arriba, Sandoval, San Miguel and 4 more87 min
Oct 12, 4:50 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCurry, Eddy, Lea, Quay, Roosevelt85 min
Oct 12, 4:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Cottle, Hardeman53 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2012Tornado Watches in New Mexico, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.