Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2037

October 12, 201210 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 12:03 PM MDT for 10 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2012, 12:03 PM MDT (18:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2012, 1:30 PM MDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Bernalillo County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The radar

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -166 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1668 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

293 
ACUS11 KWNS 121803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121803 
NMZ000-COZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 121803Z - 121930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN KS INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN BACKED OVER N-CNTRL NM...WHICH IS
MAINTAINING UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND
A COOL MIDLEVEL AIRMASS WILL AID IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS
AND INCREASING IN SPEED TO 70 KT /BASED ON ABX VWP/ IS YIELDING
STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY FAVOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS A BAND OF
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MOVES FROM W-CNTRL/NWRN NM ACROSS N-CNTRL NM.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WEATHER THREATS...BUT A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   34620497 34180584 34160717 34690772 36530781 36990710
            36980585 36560495 35690434 34620497

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 2:19 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt	86 min
Oct 12, 10:49 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McKinley, San Juan	86 min
Oct 12, 4:50 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Curry, Eddy, Lea, Quay, Roosevelt	85 min
Oct 12, 5:22 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Quay and 1 more	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.