Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2039
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 4:50 PM MDT for 5 counties in New Mexico; 30 counties in Texas. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2012, 4:50 PM MDT (22:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 12, 2012, 6:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 35 counties
Curry County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Ector County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1935 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -142 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 708 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 92 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 2.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
726
ACUS11 KWNS 122250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122250
TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122250Z - 130015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO WEST TX.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. CLOSELY
MONITORING FOR A WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY...THE LEADING /EASTERN/ EDGE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EASTWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH A
RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AT A WESTERN LONGITUDE /55-65 F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN NM/...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TSTMS THIS EVENING. SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM NEAR CARLSBAD AS OF
2230Z...AND MORE RECENTLY NEAR THE LUBBOCK/PLAINVIEW TX AREAS. IN
ALL...IT IS PROBABLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST INHIBITION WITH
MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. AS DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL
SHEAR STEADILY INCREASES THIS EVENING...WIND PROFILES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY MODEST SOUTH OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM AND TX PANHANDLE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY...MASS
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY
INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A TREND ALREADY NOTED PER
THE CANNON AFB NM WSR-88D VWP /200 0-1 KM SRH/. AS SUCH...A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE SUPERCELLS INDEED OCCUR/REMAIN
SUSTAINED THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING.
..GUYER/HART.. 10/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32070446 33690420 35110372 35670228 35370110 34390069
32190185 31150277 31260372 32070446SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2:19 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt | 86 min |
| Oct 12, 10:49 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McKinley, San Juan | 86 min |
| Oct 12, 12:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Los Alamos, Mora, Rio Arriba, Sandoval, San Miguel and 4 more | 87 min |
| Oct 12, 5:22 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Quay and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 12, 4:37 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Cottle, Hardeman | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.