Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2038

October 12, 201211 counties in Oklahoma; Childress County, Cottle County, Hardeman County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 5:37 PM CDT for 11 counties in Oklahoma; Childress County, Cottle County, Hardeman County, Texas. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2012, 5:37 PM CDT (22:37 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Caddo County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, McClain County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Childress County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Hardeman County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1455 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 519 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

959 
ACUS11 KWNS 122238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122237
OKZ000-TXZ000-122330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK...FAR NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122237Z - 122330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED INVOF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL OK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A DMGG
WIND GUST...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 22Z PLACES A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20
SW CDS TO 25 N FSI...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EVIDENT N OF THE
FRONT PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. RECENT BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE S OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF STRONG
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S F
OVER SWRN OK. THIS HAS AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED WITH
10-15 MPH WINDS OBSERVED. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOW TSTMS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING N OF THE FRONT INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT GIVEN FAVORABLE
/BUT WEAK/ VEERING 0-1 KM AGL WINDS NOTED IN REGIONAL VWP DATA...AND
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST ANY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED/BRIEF...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. WITH TIME...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN A NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35059720 34579801 34009957 33990021 34220054 34510045
            35159934 35299901 35559829 35479755 35419743 35059720

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 2:17 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Craig, Dewey, Garfield, Grant and 13 more	118 min
Oct 12, 3:51 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Craig, Garfield, Grant, Kay, Major and 7 more	2 hr
Oct 12, 3:19 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Yoakum	86 min
Oct 12, 5:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 24 more	85 min
Oct 12, 6:22 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 25 more	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.