Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2034

October 12, 201211 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2012, 3:51 AM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2012, 3:51 AM CDT (08:51 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2012, 6:15 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 35 counties

Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Harper County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Stone County, MO, Webster County, MO, Alfalfa County, OK, Craig County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Washington County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1400 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1165 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

763 
ACUS11 KWNS 120852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120851
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120851Z - 121115Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2 IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BAND OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SAG
SWD.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS
BAND OF CLOUD TOP COOLING COINCIDING WITH A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM AROUND GAG TO N
OF PNC TO NE OF JLN TO NEAR SGF. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
WITHIN THIS BAND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIR IS LIFTED ATOP THE FRONTAL SFC. AND...WITH AREA VWP DATA
DEPICTING AOA 25 KT OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
FLOW...TRAINING OF MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE LIKELY.
RAINFALL RATES REACHING AROUND 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PW VALUES
OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES EXTEND INTO THE REGION PER GPS DATA. THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORMS POSING A HEAVY-RAINFALL THREAT MAY
EVENTUALLY SAG SWD IN RESPONSE TO STORM PROPAGATION OVER THE SRN
FLANK OF THE EXPANDING COLD POOL WHERE HIGH THETA-E INFLOW WILL
SUPPORT NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT.

AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND LIMITED
ELEVATED CAPE WILL MINIMIZE ANY SVR THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..COHEN.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37809556 37699393 37379280 37019259 36709305 36569473
            36429653 36029891 36239953 36619952 37069860 37659682
            37809556

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 2:17 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford, Elk, Labette and 3 more	118 min
Oct 12, 5:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Cleveland, Comanche, Grady, Greer, Harmon and 5 more	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.