Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 552

April 15, 201235 counties in Arkansas; 37 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 15, 2012, 4:22 PM CDT for 35 counties in Arkansas; 37 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 15, 2012, 4:22 PM CDT (21:22 UTC)
Expired
Apr 15, 2012, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 101 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Union County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clinton County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Washington County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Perry County, MO, Pike County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 178 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 246 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-04-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 31 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-04-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 319 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-142 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
855 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
319 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
381 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

582 
ACUS11 KWNS 152123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152122
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-152245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152122Z - 152245Z

ADDITIONAL WWS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY EAST OF ONGOING
CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE ARKLATEX IS
STILL FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH...AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE PLAINS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS LOCALLY ENHANCED
BY EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES/ISOLATED TORNADOES... STILL APPEARS LIKELY
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE LINE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN
NOW AND 00-02Z.

..KERR.. 04/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...DVN...LZK...
SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   38839170 40339090 40878984 40768866 39738836 38578878
            36648991 34219082 33329174 33059237 33369334 34389279
            35779210 37109194 38219169 38839170

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Madison, Sebastian, Washington85 min
Apr 15, 6:38 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more4 hr
Apr 15, 9:25 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford, Franklin and 22 more95 min
Apr 15, 10:51 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford, Franklin and 18 more7 hr
Apr 15, 1:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Carroll, Conway, Crawford, Franklin and 18 more97 min
Apr 15, 3:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller and 3 more91 min
Apr 15, 4:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay and 49 more6 hr
Apr 14, 8:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBureau, Carroll, Henderson, Henry, Mercer, Putnam and 3 more4 hr
Apr 14, 9:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Henry and 12 more96 min
Apr 15, 4:42 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Clinton and 15 more6 hr
Apr 15, 6:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 25 more63 min
Apr 14, 11:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPutnam92 min
Apr 14, 11:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Platte87 min
Apr 15, 1:37 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, DeKalb, Gentry, Holt and 2 more5 hr
Apr 15, 4:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton and 6 more88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.