Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1192

June 16, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2012, 5:24 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2012, 5:24 PM MDT (23:24 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2012, 7:00 PM MDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 25 counties

Baca County, CO, Clark County, KS, Grant County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Union County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 4 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 9 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-412 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2997 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

006 
ACUS11 KWNS 162324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162324 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM/SERN CO...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 162324Z - 170100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. WW
DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.

DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SMALL CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E AT 30 KT OVER NERN NM...WITH NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY E NEAR THE NM/OK BORDER.
ADDITIONAL STORMS...WHICH INCLUDED A BRIEF RM SUPERCELL...WERE
LOCATED 20 SSE OF PUB IN SERN CO. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE NM ACTIVITY
IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE TO 1 KM FLOW HAS BEGUN TO BACK...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION IN NM AND
CO. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES NEAR
2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-LEVEL SELYS VEERING TO
WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED MCS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/NIGHT IF STORM COVERAGE CAN
INCREASE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH ATTM TO SUGGEST A WW
WILL BE NECESSARY.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36660384 37710331 37900191 37680009 36889954 35839976
            35420058 35480338 36660384

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 15, 6:00 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma90 min
Jun 15, 6:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma5 hr
Jun 15, 9:47 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Yuma88 min
Jun 15, 10:25 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 14 more95 min
Jun 16, 3:10 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Comanche, Harper, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt and 2 more65 min
Jun 16, 10:40 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth and 3 more95 min
Jun 16, 4:36 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Crawford, Linn84 min
Jun 16, 12:45 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCurry, Roosevelt60 min
Jun 15, 10:44 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarmon91 min
Jun 16, 2:02 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 20 more88 min
Jun 15, 7:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Castro, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza and 10 more23 min
Jun 15, 7:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBriscoe, Castro, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 14 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.