Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1190

June 16, 2012Bourbon County, Crawford County, Linn County, Kansas; 38 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2012, 5:36 PM CDT for Bourbon County, Crawford County, Linn County, Kansas; 38 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2012, 5:36 PM CDT (22:36 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2012, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 41 counties

Bourbon County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Linn County, KS, Audrain County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-06-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 343 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2012-06-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -49 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
343 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-215 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1427 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

620 
ACUS11 KWNS 162236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162236 
MOZ000-KSZ000-170000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL AND SE KS...MUCH OF SWRN THRU
CNTRL/E CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 162236Z - 170000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WW THIS EVENING SOUTH OF WWS 400 AND
401.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
IOWA...NEW...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA IN RESPONSE TO
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION.  INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
EASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MAY STILL BE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...BUT WITH A GRADUAL VEERING OF MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THIS MAY WEAKEN
WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING.  COINCIDING WITH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW
OF MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/...INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION BY 00-03Z...WITH A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VICINITY.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38419480 38969412 39219294 39249188 38739092 37969088
            37279211 37109356 37259445 37589511 37899522 38419480

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 15, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Greeley and 17 more90 min
Jun 15, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more5 hr
Jun 15, 10:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more88 min
Jun 15, 11:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 14 more95 min
Jun 16, 4:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Comanche, Harper, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt and 2 more65 min
Jun 16, 11:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth and 3 more95 min
Jun 16, 6:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward and 2 more96 min
Jun 16, 12:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 21 more5 hr
Jun 16, 12:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Lewis, Scotland63 min
Jun 16, 2:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Cole, Knox and 10 more6 hr
Jun 16, 3:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Caldwell, Clark, Daviess, DeKalb, Grundy and 10 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.