Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1185

June 16, 20128 counties in Kansas; Grant County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2012, 4:10 AM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas; Grant County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 16, 2012, 4:10 AM CDT (09:10 UTC)
Expired
Jun 16, 2012, 5:15 AM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Barber County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Grant County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-06-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1191 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lamont, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-06-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1191 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1564 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

051 
ACUS11 KWNS 160910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160910 
KSZ000-OKZ000-161015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 160910Z - 161015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WILL PROGRESS ESEWD DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO REACH ICT AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OK.  THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUST AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...AN EXPANDING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER SWRN-SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW MOVING ESEWD
AROUND 40 KT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...NOTED IN RADAR ANALYSIS INTO KIOWA COUNTY...APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED INTO COMANCHE COUNTY KS
EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING THE ALREADY ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THE
ESEWD MOVING TSTM CLUSTER.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS THAT
FORMED ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE
THROUGH SRN KS AND WRN OK AND THEIR MERGERS WITH THE SRN KS
CLUSTER...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE EXPERIENCING ITS
PEAK INTENSITY.  

LOW LEVEL WAA PER A 40 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN KS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAIN THE COLD POOL AND
SUBSEQUENT STRONGER WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  A SOMEWHAT SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE TO THIS THREAT EWD TO AROUND ICT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37719957 38059896 37889750 37609675 37089714 36729780
            36749862 36909929 37719957

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 15, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Ellis, Gove, Graham, Greeley and 17 more90 min
Jun 15, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more5 hr
Jun 15, 10:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more88 min
Jun 15, 11:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 14 more95 min
Jun 16, 11:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth and 3 more95 min
Jun 16, 5:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Crawford, Linn84 min
Jun 16, 6:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward and 2 more96 min
Jun 15, 11:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarmon91 min
Jun 16, 1:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarmon60 min
Jun 16, 3:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 20 more88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.