Areal Flood Warning 34, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
517 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...DANGEROUS FLOODING ONGOING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
 	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING...SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN IS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG OR
EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR
SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE VERY
QUICKLY. FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LONG
LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUING LATE INTO THE EVENING.

A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE AREA OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING MAY PUSH THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND IF THIS HAPPENS... THE HIGHEST RISK AREA MAY NEED TO
BE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH LATER UPDATES.

IN ADDITION...DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS ONGOING OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MONDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE
FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF RESCUE AND RECOVERY EFFORTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BRING MORE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
STORMS AFTER THAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED. ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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