Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS
THE REGION BUT ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH FEWER
SUPERCELLS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT
A TORNADO AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WARM AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME AND WILL PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF OUR REGION
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY
SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NATURE COAST.

SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OF LOWER 80S NORTH TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LATEST MODELS
HAVE NOW COME IN LINE AND SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS BRINGING WARM HUMID AIR BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA SETTING
US UP FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME DRIER AND SLIGHT COOLER AIR MOVING BACK IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TPA...PIE AND SRQ. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF AIRPORTS 22 TO 23Z THEN IMPACT FMY AND RSW THROUGH 23 TO
24Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW. WINDS TO THE
SOUTH ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE PASSES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35
PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  79  63  80 /  10   0   5   5
FMY  65  83  62  85 /  40   0   5   5
GIF  60  81  60  82 /  20   0   5   5
SRQ  63  80  62  80 /  20   0   5   5
BKV  54  79  55  80 /  10   0   5   5
SPG  66  79  66  79 /  10   0   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CLOSE
AVIATION...LAMARRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-312200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER.
FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

CARLISLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
316 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ049>052-312000-
POLK-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
316 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PASCO...NORTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR SAFETY HARBOR...OR NEAR CLEARWATER...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH...WILL AFFECT SAFETY HARBOR...PALM HARBOR...LARGO AND
HIGHPOINT...UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 261 AND 279.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 30 AND 53.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2821 8276 2832 8224 2810 8205 2792 8254
      2794 8254 2796 8255 2796 8270 2795 8271
      2792 8265 2789 8262 2781 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 254DEG 33KT 2801 8269

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
344 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW BRADENTON         27.51N 82.64W
03/31/2011                   MANATEE            FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED NUMEROUS MEDIUM TO LARGE
            BRANCHES AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR 15TH AVE NW AND 75TH
            ST.

0700 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE LAND O' LAKES      28.21N 82.44W
03/31/2011                   PASCO              FL   NEWSPAPER

            DAMAGE TO CARPORTS AND POOL CAGES IN LAKE PADGETT ESTATES
            NEIGHBORHOOD OF LAND O LAKES.

&&

FLEMING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ050>052-055-312030-
POLK-MANATEE-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
346 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHEASTERN PINELLAS...NORTHWESTERN MANATEE AND
WESTERN POLK COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF RUSKIN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH WILL
AFFECT RUSKIN...SUN CITY CENTER...APOLLO BEACH AND WIMAUMA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 229 AND 257.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 17 AND 28.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2771 8275 2772 8273 2764 8271 2773 8270
      2778 8262 2766 8266 2761 8258 2786 8240
      2783 8253 2790 8241 2811 8205 2796 8181
      2751 8266 2762 8259 2761 8272 2765 8274
      2770 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 243DEG 35KT 2766 8263

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
410 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ESE BUOY C21          27.66N 82.62W
03/31/2011  M49 MPH          GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            THE C-CUT PORTS STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43 KNOTS.

&&

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
427 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLZ051-052-055-056-312130-
HARDEE-POLK-MANATEE-HILLSBOROUGH-
427 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN MANATEE...SOUTHERN POLK AND NORTHWESTERN
HARDEE COUNTIES FOR WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
LOCATED NEAR RUSKIN...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMETTO...MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH WILL AFFECT RUSKIN...PARRISH...SUN CITY CENTER AND WIMAUMA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 217 AND 240.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2760 8274 2751 8270 2755 8263 2761 8260
      2761 8258 2767 8254 2809 8145 2805 8143
      2804 8145 2802 8142 2784 8135 2754 8194
      2738 8257 2742 8260 2743 8266 2754 8275
      2756 8274 2759 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 251DEG 48KT 2766 8240

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
446 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND GST     SARASOTA BRADENTON AIRP 27.40N 82.55W
03/31/2011  M60 MPH          MANATEE            FL   ASOS

            THE ASOS AT THE SARASOTA BRADENTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
            MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 KNOTS.

&&

COLSON