Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
424 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE BENIGN. STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND THE GULF
WATERS THAT HAVE CONTINUED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS SEEN FROM
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
FORMING OUT IN THE GULF IN RESPONSE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME PLEASANT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST MODELS HAVE NOW COME IN LINE AND SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES
EASTWARD.  A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
BRINGING WARM HUMID AIR BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA SETTING US UP FOR
WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AND SLIGHT
COOLER AIR MOVING BACK IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EFFECTING TPA/PIE. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
TPA/PIE REGION DURING LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM
AROUND PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  63  79  63 /  80  20   0   5
FMY  85  65  83  62 /  50  40   0   5
GIF  83  61  81  60 /  80  20   0   5
SRQ  79  63  80  62 /  80  20   0   5
BKV  79  58  79  55 /  90  10   0   5
SPG  78  65  79  66 /  80  20   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-302130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
530 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING  A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE STORMS
WILL CONTAIN DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING
IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. A RIP CURRENT IS A
10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE